FC Aarau vs FC Zurich Schweizer Cup prediction & result
Final score: FC Aarau 2-0 FC Zurich.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC Aarau, 28% draw, 30% FC Zurich — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Aarau at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 30A. Hirzel
- 2M. Thaler
- 5D. Acquah
- 3R. Guzzo
- 29M. Dickenmann
- 6I. Aliu
- 31V. Petit-Viretti
- 42B. Senyurt
- 11H. Koide
- 18D. Afriyie
- 7M. Guindo
- 23E. Jordan
- 24T. Arkovic
- 28D. Coric
- 80A. Beka Beka
- 20K. Ndau
- 16A. Bizzarri
- 15S. Muller
- 27L. Obexer
- 38M. Frei
- 1S. Huber
- 47D. Lichtenstein
- 2L. Kamberi
- 21L. Schodler
- 43N. Volken
- 17K. Spadanuda
- 38M. Reichmuth
- 23V. Berisha
- 7B. Krasniqi
- 11U. Emmanuel
- 19P. P. Keny
- 13H. Lindner
- 48D. Ihendu
- 42A. Hack
- 4J. Segura
- 46J. Stiel
- 8L. Comenencia
- 14N. Di Giusto
- 49D. Ramic
- 39S. Diawara
Form going into FC Aarau vs FC Zurich
FC Aarau
Challenge League
- L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026
FC Zurich
Super League
- W4-2FC Thun10 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
FC Aarau and FC Zurich in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | Super League | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 21 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Challenge League · Switzerland Super League
Head-to-head: FC Aarau vs FC Zurich
- 3 July 2021FC Zurich 0–1 FC AarauFriendlies Clubs
- 9 June 2020FC Zurich 5–1 FC AarauFriendlies Clubs
- 4 May 2017FC Aarau 3–1 FC ZurichChallenge League
- 17 April 2017FC Zurich 3–2 FC AarauChallenge League
- 6 November 2016FC Zurich 6–3 FC AarauChallenge League
Leading scorers: FC Aarau and FC Zurich
FC Aarau
No player in Challenge League's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
FC Zurich
GoalsAssists
- U. Emmanuel63
- P. Keny61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Aarau beat FC Zurich 2–0. The model had made a win for FC Aarau its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: D. Afriyie 65' for FC Aarau, D. Afriyie 80' for FC Aarau. Sent off: M. Reichmuth (FC Zurich) 83'.
How the call on FC Aarau v FC Zurich has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- FC Aarau win42%▲ +1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- FC Zurich win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.