FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern Schweizer Cup prediction & result
Final score: FC Winterthur 0-1 FC Luzern.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% FC Winterthur, 26% draw, 41% FC Luzern — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Luzern at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 75A. Spagnoli
- 27F. Rohner
- 33T. Citherlet
- 16R. Arnold
- 4S. Camara
- 44S. Cueni
- 7L. Zuffi
- 19Y. Odin
- 8T. Golliard
- 68B. Beyer
- 37E. Maluvunu
- 1M. Kuster
- 6E. Essiam
- 9R. Buess
- 11E. Kehrer
- 18S. Diaby
- 21S. Ottiger
- 22A. Turkes
- 45A. Jankewitz
- 20A. Marchesano
- 30K. Letica
- 20P. Dorn
- 13B. H. Freimann
- 46B. Freimann
- 14A. Ciganiks
- 10L. Silva
- 80M. Zimmermann
- 6L. Bertone
- 11M. Di Giusto
- 18F. Bongeli
- 19D. Mikolajewski
- 1S. Simoni
- 5S. Knezevic
- 21L. Luthi
- 29L. Winkler
- 24T. Owusu
- 7A. Oehlers
- 16O. Kabwit
- 15N. Toggenburger
- 22R. Dantas Fernandes
Form going into FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
FC Winterthur
Challenge League
- L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
FC Luzern
Super League
- L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
- W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
FC Winterthur and FC Luzern in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Winterthur | Challenge League | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 25 |
| 9 | FC Luzern | Super League | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 13 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Challenge League · Switzerland Super League
Head-to-head: FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
- 4 July 2026FC Luzern 3–2 FC WinterthurFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2026FC Winterthur 0–3 FC LuzernSuper League
- 15 March 2026FC Luzern 1–2 FC WinterthurSuper League
- 29 November 2025FC Luzern 1–3 FC WinterthurSuper League
- 25 October 2025FC Winterthur 2–2 FC LuzernSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Winterthur and FC Luzern
FC Winterthur
No player in Challenge League's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
FC Luzern
GoalsAssists
- D. Mikołajewski43
- M. Di Giusto43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Luzern won 1–0 at FC Winterthur. The model had made a win for FC Luzern its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: P. Dorn 90+2' for FC Luzern.
How the call on FC Winterthur v FC Luzern has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 33% / 26% / 41%: the biggest move is FC Winterthur's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Winterthur win33%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −2
- FC Luzern win41%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.