28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Sweden vs Poland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Strawberry Arena, Solna
Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Sweden 3-1 Poland.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sweden, 28% draw, 39% Poland — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Poland at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sweden99%Draw1%Poland0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Benjamin Nygrenassist: Victor Lindelöf
8'
Daniel Svensson
19'
35'
Tymoteusz Puchacz
43'
⚽Sebastian Szymańskiassist: Nicola Zalewski
58'
Piotr Zieliński
🔁Besfort Zeneliout: Sebastian Nanasi
63'
⚽Yasin Ayariassist: Sebastian Nanasi
63'
65'
🔁Tymoteusz Puchaczout: Przemysław Frankowski
⚽Viktor Gyökeresassist: Patrick Walemark
72'
76'
🔁Piotr Zielińskiout: Kacper Urbanski
76'
🔁Sebastian Szymańskiout: Karol Świderski
76'
🔁Matty Cashout: Michał Skóraś
🔁Benjamin Nygrenout: Hugo Larsson
80'
🔁Patrick Walemarkout: Alexander Bernhardsson
80'
88'
🔁Przemyslaw Wiśniewskiout: Robert Lewandowski
🔁Yasin Ayariout: Williot Swedberg
89'
🔁Viktor Gyökeresout: Jesper Karlstrom
89'
90+2'
Robert Lewandowski

Match stats — Sweden vs Poland

53%Possession47%
12Shots18
6On target7
4Corners4

Line-ups

Sweden 4-4-2
  • 12V. JohanssonG
  • 8D. SvenssonD
  • 15C. StarfeltD
  • 3V. LindelöfD
  • 5G. GudmundssonD
  • 11P. WålemarkM
  • 7L. BergvallM
  • 18Y. AyariM
  • 22B. ZeneliM
  • 10B. NygrenF
  • 17V. GyökeresF
Substitutes
  • 21A. BernhardssonF
  • 1N. TörnqvistG
  • 9P. AbrahamF
  • 23M. EllborgG
  • 16J. KarlströmM
  • 2G. LagerbielkeD
  • 20H. LarssonM
  • 6J. MellbergD
  • 19S. NanasiM
Coach: G. Potter
Poland 3-4-3
  • 1M. BułkaG
  • 3P. WiśniewskiD
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 14J. KiwiorD
  • 2M. CashM
  • 16W. NowakM
  • 10P. ZielińskiM
  • 15T. PuchaczM
  • 20S. SzymańskiF
  • 13M. ŻukowskiF
  • 21N. ZalewskiF
Substitutes
  • 4T. KędzioraD
  • 12M. KochalskiG
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 7W. MońkaD
  • 23K. PotulskiD
  • 18M. RegułaM
  • 17M. SkóraśF
  • 6B. SliszM
  • 11K. ŚwiderskiF
Coach: J. Urban

Form going into Sweden vs Poland

Sweden

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1Romania25 September 2026

Poland

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Bosnia & Herzegovina25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Sweden5410105+513
3Poland511386+24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sweden vs Poland

  • 31 March 2026Sweden 3–2 PolandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 29 March 2022Poland 2–0 SwedenWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 23 June 2021Sweden 3–2 PolandEuro Championship

Leading scorers: Sweden and Poland

Sweden

GoalsAssists

  • V. Gyökeres60

Poland

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sweden beat Poland 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Poland at 39% and given a win for Sweden 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Benjamin Nygren 8' for Sweden, Sebastian Szymański 43' for Poland, Yasin Ayari 63' for Sweden, Viktor Gyökeres 72' for Sweden.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.