Toluca vs Santos Laguna Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 2-3 Santos Laguna.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Toluca, 29% draw, 26% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Toluca at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toluca vs Santos Laguna
Line-ups
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 4B. MéndezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 25E. LópezD
- 205Edher Guadalupe Segura TéllezM
- 8N. CastroM
- 20J. GallardoM
- 16F. ViñasM
- 9A. VegaM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 23O. VirgenF
- 29J. DíazM
- 12R. BeltránG
- 10J. AnguloM
- 198J. EstradaF
- 13LuanD
- 17B. GarcíaD
- 15P. PérezM
- 19S. SimónM
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 28Jonathan PérezD
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 17E. EcheverrÃaD
- 10E. BullaudeM
- 8S. MariscalM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 193Luis GómezM
- 20E. LozanoF
- 7D. GonzálezF
- 6J. GüémezM
- 33H. HolguínG
- 14E. OronaM
- 77K. PalaciosM
- 22K. PicónD
- 26R. SordoM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 19E. AguirreF
Form going into Toluca vs Santos Laguna
Toluca
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
Santos Laguna
All competitions we cover
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas17 August 2026
What these results say
- Toluca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Toluca won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toluca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Santos Laguna
- 15 January 2026Toluca 3–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 17 July 2025Santos Laguna 2–4 TolucaLiga MX
- 7 April 2025Toluca 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 23 September 2024Santos Laguna 2–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 22 February 2024Toluca 1–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and Santos Laguna
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos Laguna won 3–2 at Toluca. The model had leaned towards a win for Toluca at 45% and given a win for Santos Laguna 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Federico Viñas 25' for Toluca, João Paulo Dias Fernandes 43' for Toluca, Ezequiel Bullaude 45+1' for Santos Laguna, Kevin Palacios 86' for Santos Laguna, Francisco Villalba 90+5' for Santos Laguna. Sent off: Everardo Lopez (Toluca) 45+7'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.