Turku PS vs Ilves Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Turku PS 0-3 Ilves.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Turku PS, 32% draw, 32% Ilves — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Turku PS at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Turku PS vs Ilves
Line-ups
- 1E. HenrikssonG
- 2O. HäggströmD
- 14M. HrádeckýD
- 25Abdoulie TambaD
- 20M. KauppilaD
- 6Pau JuvantenyM
- 22T. ZaalM
- 10M. KönkköläM
- 28T. VakipartaM
- 11E. VauhkonenM
- 99K. VisserF
- 35D. LauriG
- 17A. SihvonenD
- 24N. TaloD
- 9L. IvanovicF
- 41S. AniniF
- 7R. HarjanneF
- 45Joel AhenF
- 12F. KrkalićG
- 24V. KumpuD
- 16T. MiettunenD
- 5S. VäisänenD
- 19Goudouss BambaM
- 22O. MultalaM
- 6Y. RaapM
- 13K. WalliusM
- 8M. StjopinF
- 9T. HytönenF
- 28J. KiloF
- 11H. CoulibalyF
- 45E. TamminenF
- 17S. BaranovF
- 15L. Ala-MyllymäkiM
- 3M. RaleD
- 31R. LeislahtiG
- 27F. KouakouD
Form going into Turku PS vs Ilves
Turku PS
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Mariehamn12 September 2026
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
Ilves
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
What these results say
- Turku PS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Turku PS had two goals or fewer.
- Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ilves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Turku PS vs Ilves
- 20 July 2026Turku PS 1–3 IlvesFinnish Premier League
- 13 June 2026Ilves 1–0 Turku PSFinnish Premier League
- 27 May 2026Ilves 1–0 Turku PSSuomen Cup
- 26 April 2023Turku PS 0–2 IlvesSuomen Cup
- 25 March 2023Ilves 2–0 Turku PSFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Turku PS and Ilves
Turku PS
No leading scorers listed yet.
Ilves
GoalsAssists
- T. Hytönen91
- J. Kanga43
- E. Tamminen42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ilves won 3–0 at Turku PS. The model had leaned towards a win for Turku PS at 36% and given a win for Ilves 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Teemu Hytönen (penalty) 24' for Ilves, Elias Tamminen 67' for Ilves, Stanislav Baranov 90+2' for Ilves.
How the call on Turku PS v Ilves has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 36% / 32% / 32%: the biggest move is Turku PS's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Turku PS win36%▼ −4
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Ilves win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.