VPS vs KuPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: VPS 0-2 KuPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% VPS, 28% draw, 34% KuPS — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Finnish Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
VPS at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VPS vs KuPS
Line-ups
- 41M. JallohG
- 23M. NiemiD
- 3Razak SimpsonD
- 6E. OkerekeD
- 19M. HaukiojaD
- 24Y. DaoussiD
- 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
- 2L. ManeM
- 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
- 14S. LindholmM
- 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
- 26R. ForsbackaM
- 9C. HolmelundF
- 20X. OdhiamboF
- 34A. RäisänenM
- 17Dren TërrnavaM
- 30J. VahteraM
- 12L. VäyrynenG
- 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
- 28Sahid NgobiF
- 1J. KreidlG
- 6S. SavolainenD
- 28B. MagassaD
- 23A. LötjönenD
- 25C. AntwiD
- 10V. GascM
- 8P. PennanenM
- 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
- 16T. JyryM
- 15A. AikiM
- 11J. MorenoF
- 19C. KabuyeF
- 13N. KujasaloM
- 14S. PasanenM
- 29A. PuukkoD
- 12H. RiihimäkiG
- 22S. TourayM
- 17A. HeinonenM
- 33T. HämäläinenD
- 4K. AdamsD
Form going into VPS vs KuPS
VPS
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
- L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
- L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026
KuPS
All competitions we cover
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- W1-0Shamrock Rovers27 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.
- KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | VPS | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 40 |
| 3 | KuPS | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VPS vs KuPS
- 25 July 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 13 June 2026VPS 1–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
- 10 June 2026KuPS 0–0 VPSSuomen Cup
- 31 January 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSLeague Cup
- 19 July 2025VPS 1–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: VPS and KuPS
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
KuPS
GoalsAssists
- J. Moreno71
- B. Armah40
- P. Pennanen33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
KuPS won 2–0 at VPS. The model had leaned towards a win for VPS at 38% and given a win for KuPS 34%. The goals: Tommi Jyry 29' for KuPS, Joslyn Lutumba Luyeye 35' for KuPS.
How the call on VPS v KuPS has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is KuPS's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- VPS win38%▲ +3
- Draw28%▲ +2
- KuPS win34%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.