19 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Holstein Kiel 1-1 VfL Osnabrück.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Holstein Kiel, 28% draw, 30% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Holstein Kiel at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Robin Fabinski
9'
Jonathan Gómez
David Zec
10'
19'
Fridolin Wagner
Hiroki Sekine
29'
⚽Phil Harres (pen)
45+2'
63'
🔁Fridolin Wagnerout: Daniel-Kofi Kyereh
🔁Gyan de Regtout: Steven Skrzybski
69'
Noah Madsen
70'
72'
⚽Hiroki Sekine (OG)
73'
🔁Bernd Riesselmannout: Luca Raimund
73'
🔁Patrick Kammerbauerout: Konrad Faber
David Zec
74'
87'
🔁Jonathan Gómezout: Joel Abu Hanna
87'
🔁Robin Meißnerout: Leon Opitz
🔁Hiroki Sekineout: Ikem Ugoh
89'
🔁Guillermo Balziout: Giorgi Kvilitaia
89'
90+1'
Timo Schultz

Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück

58%Possession42%
18Shots14
4On target3
10Corners1

Line-ups

Holstein Kiel 4-1-4-1
  • 1T. WeinerG
  • 32H. SekineD
  • 5N. MadsenD
  • 26D. ZecD
  • 40Leon ParduziD
  • 28J. MeffertM
  • 11G. de RegtM
  • 8G. BalziM
  • 15K. DavidsenM
  • 20A. KaprálikM
  • 19P. HarresF
Substitutes
  • 9G. KvilitaiaF
  • 13I. NekićD
  • 44Mark Richter MonserratM
  • 41Lio RothenhagenG
  • 7S. SkrzybskiF
  • 30T. TasdelenM
  • 47J. TolkinD
  • 27I. UgohM
  • 43T. WieseM
Coach: T. Walter
VfL Osnabrück 3-4-2-1
  • 32J. KrumreyG
  • 27R. FabinskiD
  • 24J. MüllerD
  • 25N. WiemannD
  • 31P. KammerbauerM
  • 15B. JacobsenM
  • 26F. WagnerM
  • 42J. GómezM
  • 21A. BeckM
  • 11R. MeißnerM
  • 22B. RiesselmannF
Substitutes
  • 17L. RaimundF
  • 19L. OpitzM
  • 8L. MünstM
  • 23T. LesueurF
  • 7D. KyerehM
  • 20T. JanottaD
  • 28K. FaberD
  • 4J. Abu HannaD
  • 1N. SauterG
Coach: T. Schultz

Form going into Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück

Holstein Kiel

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim13 September 2026
  • D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
  • L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
  • D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
  • D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026

VfL Osnabrück

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
  • W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
  • W1-0away to VfL Bochum28 August 2026
  • L0-31. FC Magdeburg15 August 2026
  • L3-4away to 1. FC Heidenheim8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Holstein Kiel did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Holstein Kiel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • VfL Osnabrück scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • VfL Osnabrück conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Osnabrück had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Holstein Kiel111551114-38
14VfL Osnabrück113261418-411

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück

  • 26 July 2025VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 April 2024Holstein Kiel 4–0 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
  • 4 November 2023VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 7 January 2023Holstein Kiel 5–3 VfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 January 2022Holstein Kiel 3–2 VfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück

Holstein Kiel

GoalsAssists

  • P. Harres53

VfL Osnabrück

GoalsAssists

  • R. Meißner41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Holstein Kiel at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Phil Harres (penalty) 45+2' for Holstein Kiel, Hiroki Sekine (own goal) 72' for VfL Osnabrück. Sent off: David Zec (Holstein Kiel) 74'.

How the call on Holstein Kiel v VfL Osnabrück has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Holstein Kiel's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Holstein Kiel win42%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. VfL Osnabrück win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.