Udinese
vs
Fiorentina
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Udinese 1–2 Fiorentina
The model makes it 29% Udinese, 26% draw, 45% Fiorentina — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Udinese 1.27, Fiorentina 1.73.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Fiorentina: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Udinese's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Fiorentina's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Udinese are bottom on 5 points from 11 games; Fiorentina are 15th on 9 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Udinese have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Venezia.
- Fiorentina are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Juventus.
- Last 6 meetings: Fiorentina 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 March 2026, ended Udinese 3–0 Fiorentina.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Udinese vs Fiorentina
Has the model earned this number?
Fiorentina at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Udinese vs Fiorentina
Udinese
Serie A
- L1-2away to Venezia6 November 2026
- L2-5AS Roma31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Parma28 October 2026
- L0-2AC Milan25 October 2026
- L0-3Lecce18 October 2026
Fiorentina
Serie A
- D2-2Juventus8 November 2026
- W4-2away to Sassuolo2 November 2026
- D2-2Atalanta29 October 2026
- L1-2away to Inter25 October 2026
- L1-3Como18 October 2026
What these results say
- Udinese did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Udinese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Fiorentina had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Udinese
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 56% today
Fiorentina
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Udinese vs Fiorentina
- 2 March 2026Udinese 3–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 21 December 2025Fiorentina 5–1 UdineseSerie A
- 25 May 2025Udinese 2–3 FiorentinaSerie A
- 23 December 2024Fiorentina 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 14 January 2024Fiorentina 2–2 UdineseSerie A
- 24 September 2023Udinese 0–2 FiorentinaSerie A
Leading scorers: Udinese and Fiorentina
Udinese
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Mateo Pellegrino40
- Franco Mastantuono40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fiorentina the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Udinese against 1.73 for Fiorentina. Udinese's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/1.05 for Fiorentina.
How the model reaches 45% for Fiorentina to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fiorentina to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Udinese's ratings add 5 points and Fiorentina's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Udinese's ratings39%+5
- Fiorentina's ratings45%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Udinese at home · Fiorentina away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
UdineseFiorentina
Udinese are 20th after 11 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 20th so far); Fiorentina are 15th after 11 (between 15th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Udinese 11, Fiorentina 11.
Udinese score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Fiorentina have let in 5 there.
Fiorentina score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Udinese have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Udinese
- at Juventus6 Dec · Serie Awin 17%
- vs Frosinone11 Dec · Serie Awin 24%
- at Genoa20 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
- vs Atalanta3 Jan · Serie Awin 26%
Fiorentina
- vs Cagliari7 Dec · Serie Awin 46%
- at Parma13 Dec · Serie Awin 43%
- vs Bologna20 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Lazio2 Jan · Serie Awin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.