Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Malaga 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Malaga, 30% draw, 14% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 1.79, 3.33 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malaga at 56% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. HerreroG
- 3C. PugaD
- 15A. RecioD
- 4E. GalileaD
- 31RafitaD
- 23I. MerinoM
- 19J. CruzM
- 8C. DotorM
- 22D. LorenzoM
- 11J. MunozM
- 9ChupeF
- 13C. LopezG
- 5A. PastorD
- 12J. SalinasD
- 10D. LarrubiaF
- 14R. RodriguezM
- 18P. MartinezM
- 6R. EnriquezM
- 7H. AbaidaF
- 28J. OtunencheM
- 13L. RomanG
- 23X. NavarroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 15M. LoureiroD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 21M. SorianoM
- 2A. AltimiraM
- 19Cruz LuismiM
- 18J. AspM
- 7P. AubameyangF
- 1G. ParrenoG
- 25A. FernandezG
- 22B. EdeD
- 24AngelinoD
- 3A. ComasD
- 14R. RodriguezM
- 8D. VillaresM
- 34T. GijselhartM
- 9Z. EddahchouriF
Form going into Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
- D1-1Elche17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 24 August 2026Malaga 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 4 April 2026Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 MalagaSegunda División
- 12 October 2025Malaga 3–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 11 January 2025Malaga 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 6 October 2024Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 8 July 2020Malaga 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Deportivo La Coruna
- P. Aubameyang5 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.