3 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Vitesse vs NAC Breda Eerste Divisie prediction & result

GelreDome, Arnhem
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Vitesse 2-2 NAC Breda.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Vitesse, 31% draw, 33% NAC Breda — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vitesse at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vitesse4%Draw93%NAC Breda3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Naoufal Bannisassist: Filipe de Carvalho Ferreira
14'
24'
⚽Charles-Andreas Brymassist: Kamal Sowah
32'
⚽Kamal Sowah
🔁Nathangelo Markeloout: Solomon Bonnah
45'
🔁Jeredy Hiltermanout: Pontus Dahbo
45'
🔁Mathijs Marschalkout: Youssef Ouallil
45'
49'
Charles-Andreas Brym
M. Steffen
51'
67'
🔁Kamal Sowahout: Fredrik Jensen
🔁Filipe de Carvalho Ferreiraout: Joâo Pinto
71'
72'
🔁Charles-Andreas Brymout: Gabriel Osei Misehouy
Aymen·Sellouf
79'
Youssef Ouallil
80'
81'
🔁Moussa Soumanoout: Mohamed Bouchouari
81'
🔁Jan Van den Berghout: Mylan Brouwers
🔁Xiamaro thenuout: Alexander Büttner
83'
⚽Naoufal Bannis
87'
Alexander Büttner
90'
🔁M. Steffenout: omar achouitar
90+4'

Match stats — Vitesse vs NAC Breda

41%Possession59%
9Shots15
4On target3
8Corners2

Line-ups

Vitesse 4-4-2
  • 1C. van den BergG
  • 24N. MarkeloD
  • 17V. ZumberiD
  • 55M. SteffenD
  • 22Xiamaro ThenuD
  • 20F. de CarvalhoM
  • 6M. SchikoraM
  • 33M. MarschalkM
  • 21A. SelloufM
  • 19J. HiltermanF
  • 9N. BannisF
Substitutes
  • 38Koen te VeluweM
  • 16P. DahboM
  • 28A. BüttnerD
  • 31M. BrullG
  • 14O. AchouitarD
  • 34Y. OuallilM
  • 2S. BonnahD
  • 13J. PintoF
  • 11Yuval RanonF
Coach: R. Rehm
NAC Breda 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. VerripsG
  • 2B. LucassenD
  • 4L. GreimlD
  • 22R. HillenD
  • 12J. Van den BerghD
  • 78J. Van HeckeM
  • 6M. BalardM
  • 14K. SowahM
  • 10M. NassohM
  • 28C. BrymM
  • 9M. SoumanoF
Substitutes
  • 17M. BouchouariD
  • 35M. BrouwersD
  • 5J. CandelariaD
  • 55B. GhalidiF
  • 8F. Oldrup JensenM
  • 23R. KortsmitG
  • 31K. LamprouG
  • 11G. MisehouyM
  • 34I. NazihM
Coach: R. Kruijs

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Vitesse135351718-118
4NAC Breda158432922+728

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vitesse vs NAC Breda

  • 2 March 2019Vitesse 4–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
  • 9 December 2018NAC Breda 2–1 VitesseEredivisie
  • 7 April 2018NAC Breda 1–0 VitesseEredivisie
  • 12 August 2017Vitesse 4–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
  • 7 February 2015NAC Breda 0–1 VitesseEredivisie

Leading scorers: Vitesse and NAC Breda

Vitesse

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bannis103

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vitesse and NAC Breda drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Vitesse at 36% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Naoufal Bannis 14' for Vitesse, Charles-Andreas Brym 24' for NAC Breda, Kamal Sowah 32' for NAC Breda, Naoufal Bannis 87' for Vitesse.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.