Eerste Divisie predictions

Sunday 15 November — 1 match

• 13:30 UTC MVV vs Vitesse — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Vitesse

Friday 20 November — 9 matches

• 19:00 UTC De Graafschap vs MVV — model 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.70 · 4.55. Edge: De Graafschap
• 19:00 UTC Vitesse vs Jong AZ — model 49% / 26% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.04 · 3.85 · 4.00. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 — model 69% / 20% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.45 · 5.00 · 9.09. One-sided: Heracles
• 19:00 UTC FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax — model 56% / 22% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.55 · 4.55. Edge: FC Volendam
• 19:00 UTC Almere City FC vs NAC Breda — model 51% / 26% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 3.85 · 4.35. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo — model 37% / 27% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.70 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
• 19:00 UTC FC OSS vs Roda — model 37% / 31% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.23 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Jong Utrecht vs Emmen — model 45% / 25% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 4.00 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 1 match

• 15:30 UTC FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk — model 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.57 · 2.56. Edge: Waalwijk

Monday 23 November — 2 matches

• 19:00 UTC Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht — model 46% / 27% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.70 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ — model 44% / 24% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 4.17 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 7 matches

• 19:00 UTC NAC Breda vs Den Bosch — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: NAC Breda
• 19:00 UTC VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk — model 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.70 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Dordrecht vs Vitesse — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Vitesse
• 19:00 UTC MVV vs Jong PSV U21 — model 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.33 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
• 19:00 UTC Jong AZ vs FC OSS — model 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Jong Ajax vs Heracles — model 21% / 23% / 56%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.76 · 4.35 · 1.79. One-sided: Heracles
• 19:00 UTC Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC — model 27% / 25% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 4.00 · 2.08. One-sided: Almere City FC

Saturday 28 November — 1 match

• 15:30 UTC Emmen vs Helmond Sport — model 50% / 24% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.17 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

• 11:15 UTC FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven — model 56% / 23% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.35 · 4.76. Edge: FC Volendam
• 15:45 UTC Roda vs De Graafschap — model 47% / 29% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.45 · 4.17. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

14 November: the model called the result of 5 of 7 matches. Across all 63 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 48% of results.

• NAC Breda 4–2 Emmen — the model said 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Almere City FC 6–1 Helmond Sport — the model said 63% / 22% / 15%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• De Graafschap 1–2 FC OSS — the model said 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Dordrecht 1–2 Heracles — the model said 16% / 21% / 63%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
• Roda 3–1 FC Volendam — the model said 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• VVV Venlo 1–2 FC Eindhoven — the model said 60% / 22% / 18%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Waalwijk 4–0 Den Bosch — the model said 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

Eerste Divisie so far

Top of the table

• 1. Heracles — 38 pts from 15 (12W 2D 1L, goals 46–16)
• 2. Almere City FC — 31 pts from 15 (10W 1D 4L, goals 36–15)
• 3. VVV Venlo — 29 pts from 15 (9W 2D 4L, goals 38–24)
• 4. NAC Breda — 28 pts from 15 (8W 4D 3L, goals 29–22)
• 5. Roda — 28 pts from 15 (8W 4D 3L, goals 21–18)

The model's chance of finishing first in the Eerste Divisie: Regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 234 matches left: Heracles 91.7%, Almere City FC 5.2%, VVV Venlo 1.3%.

Leading scorers: J. N'djoli (Heracles) 14 goals, H. Veerman (FC Volendam) 14 goals, J. Cooper (Emmen) 11 goals.