3 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% FC Eindhoven, 28% draw, 29% De Graafschap — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Eindhoven at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Eindhoven5%Draw92%De Graafschap3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rayan·Buifrahiassist: Raf van de Riet
22'
24'
Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff
45'
🔁Bjorn van Zijlout: gabriele finocchiaro
53'
⚽gabriele finocchiaroassist: Mark Diemers
🔁Luc Nettenout: Clint Essers
60'
60'
🔁Jannes Luca·Wieckhoffout: Thomas Kok
🔁Hugo Deenenout: Amir Bryson
60'
68'
🔁Julian kaniaout: Kyano Kwint
68'
🔁Mark Diemersout: Jorn Triep
70'
⚽Kyano Kwintassist: Fedde De Jong
🔁Xander Blommeout: Niek Munsters
70'
⚽Siegert Baartmansassist: Guus Beaumont
72'
Raf van de Riet
77'
77'
Nolan Martens
Rayan·Buifrahi
77'
85'
🔁Donny Warmerdamout: Joran Hardeman
🔁Kevin van Veenout: antonio bazdaric
89'
89'
gijs bolk

Match stats — FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap

41%Possession59%
19Shots17
11On target5
8Corners8

Line-ups

FC Eindhoven 4-4-2
  • 1J. BorgmansG
  • 17L. NettenD
  • 4Predrag JevtićD
  • 44O. RenfrumD
  • 20Raf van de RietD
  • 28R. BuifrahiM
  • 6G. BeaumontM
  • 8X. BlommeM
  • 7H. DeenenM
  • 9K. van VeenF
  • 19Kevin FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 18Antonio BaždarićM
  • 10Lasse AbildgaardF
  • 13A. BrysonF
  • 22C. EssersD
  • 32M. HoekD
  • 14N. MunstersM
  • 5R. BoonD
  • 21A. OzcanF
  • 31N. JanssenG
Coach: Jan Poortvliet
De Graafschap 4-3-2-1
  • 1T. WieggersG
  • 2J. WieckhoffD
  • 14Gijs BolkD
  • 3R. BesselinkD
  • 16N. MartensD
  • 8D. WarmerdamM
  • 21K. SymonsM
  • 23M. DiemersM
  • 10F. de JongM
  • 7Bjorn van ZijlM
  • 9J. KaniaF
Substitutes
  • 17N. KanindaF
  • 15T. KokD
  • 40Kyano KwintF
  • 22P. ReversonG
  • 5L. SchoppemaD
  • 28J. TriepM
  • 27N. Ahmeti-GraincaM
  • 31R. JonkersG
  • 34Nic HartgersM
Coach: T. Duivenvoorden

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Eindhoven154292032-1214
16De Graafschap144371829-1115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap

  • 3 April 2026FC Eindhoven 2–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 30 November 2025De Graafschap 2–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 11 April 2025FC Eindhoven 1–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 6 September 2024De Graafschap 2–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 19 January 2024FC Eindhoven 0–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie

The result against the call

FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Eindhoven at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rayan·Buifrahi 22' for FC Eindhoven, gabriele finocchiaro 53' for De Graafschap, Kyano Kwint 70' for De Graafschap, Siegert Baartmans 72' for FC Eindhoven.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.