Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Nacional Asuncion 1-0 Deportivo Recoleta.
Before kick-off the model made it 70% Nacional Asuncion, 19% draw, 11% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Nacional Asuncion at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. RojasG
- 23C. EspínolaD
- 22R. MelgarejoD
- 3M. CoronelD
- 29S. VargasD
- 8F. JaraM
- 15Á. Cardozo LucenaM
- 33O. GaonaM
- 13L. MezaM
- 10J. ColmánM
- 9H. BenítezF
- 20Rodolfo ArguelloD
- 11Matías Facundo Almeida MartínezF
- 7I. BailoneF
- 5G. BenítezD
- 39D. CaballeroF
- 36F. PelozoF
- 32F. PumpidoM
- 25Roberto Carlos Ramírez AntúnezM
- 17J. SantacruzM
- 13O. ToledoG
- 2F. A. Echeguren ZarzaD
- 5N. MarottaD
- 32L. MonzónD
- 18P. RiosD
- 36B. FerreiraM
- 7R. DomínguezM
- 38J. FrancoM
- 17W. BáezM
- 25Renzo José Martino CampuzanoF
- 33A. GonzálezF
- 8F. GaleanoM
- 21C. GarayM
- 1A. MarsegnoG
- 15B. MedinaD
- 23J. NúñezD
- 9R. OrtizF
- 11K. ParzajukF
- 4M. PereiraD
- 31M. ShuppM
Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Olimpia6 October 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Libertad Asuncion3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 3 August 2026Deportivo Recoleta 3–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 April 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 5 March 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Deportivo RecoletaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 26 February 2026Deportivo Recoleta 2–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 November 2025Deportivo Recoleta 0–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez66
- I. Valdez61
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
- A. González51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nacional Asuncion beat Deportivo Recoleta 1–0. The model had made a win for Nacional Asuncion its most likely outcome, at 70%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Leandro Meza 56' for Nacional Asuncion. Sent off: (Nacional Asuncion) 87+3', Rodrigo Melgarejo (Nacional Asuncion) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 2.26–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nacional Asuncion a 83.9% chance to finish in the top four: 87.6% after a win, 72.7% after a draw, 68.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.6%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.
For Deportivo Recoleta the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 90.1% going in: 78.6% after a win, 87.5% after a draw, 91.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.9%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Nacional Asuncion v Deportivo Recoleta has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 62% / 23% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 70% / 19% / 11%: the biggest move is Nacional Asuncion's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Nacional Asuncion win70%▲ +8
- Draw19%▼ −4
- Deportivo Recoleta win11%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.