West Ham
vs
Stoke City
Championship prediction
Our model says: West Ham 2–1 Stoke City
The model makes it 52% West Ham, 24% draw, 24% Stoke City — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: West Ham 2.12, Stoke City 1.27.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to West Ham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. West Ham's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Stoke City's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- West Ham are 9th on 23 points from 15 games; Stoke City are 3rd on 29 points from 15 games — Championship.
- West Ham are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Blackburn.
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Portsmouth.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 16 April 2018, ended West Ham 1–1 Stoke City.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: West Ham vs Stoke City
Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into West Ham vs Stoke City
West Ham
Championship
- L1-2away to Blackburn7 November 2026
- D3-3away to Cardiff4 November 2026
- L1-3West Brom31 October 2026
- L2-3Southampton24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026
Stoke City
Championship
- W2-1away to Portsmouth7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn3 November 2026
- W2-0Preston31 October 2026
- D0-0Bristol City24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026
What these results say
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Ham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- West Ham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
West Ham
Chance to finish in the top two · 23% today
Stoke City
Chance to finish in the top two · 9% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: West Ham vs Stoke City
- 16 April 2018West Ham 1–1 Stoke CityPremier League
- 16 December 2017Stoke City 0–3 West HamPremier League
- 29 April 2017Stoke City 0–0 West HamPremier League
- 5 November 2016West Ham 1–1 Stoke CityPremier League
- 15 May 2016Stoke City 2–1 West HamPremier League
- 12 December 2015West Ham 0–0 Stoke CityPremier League
Leading scorers: West Ham and Stoke City
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stoke City (third, with West Ham ninth), while our numbers lean to West Ham. West Ham rate 1.12 in attack and 1.47 in defence, Stoke City 0.72 and 1.24 (lower is better in defence), so West Ham have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Ham a 10.7% chance of the title and Stoke City 3.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for West Ham against 1.27 for Stoke City. West Ham's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.24 for Stoke City.
How the model reaches 52% for West Ham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for West Ham to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, West Ham's ratings add 6 points and Stoke City's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+2
- West Ham's ratings50%+6
- Stoke City's ratings52%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
West Ham at home · Stoke City away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
West HamStoke City
West Ham are 9th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 19th so far); Stoke City are 3rd after 15 (between 1st and 23rd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: West Ham 15, Stoke City 15.
West Ham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Stoke City have let in 7 there.
Stoke City score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); West Ham have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
West Ham
- at Sheffield Utd4 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
- vs Middlesbrough8 Dec · Championshipwin 44%
- vs Bristol City12 Dec · Championshipwin 62%
Stoke City
- vs QPR5 Dec · Championshipwin 43%
- at Lincoln9 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- vs West Brom12 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.