Preston
vs
Norwich
Championship prediction
Our model says: Preston 1–2 Norwich
The model makes it 24% Preston, 25% draw, 51% Norwich — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Preston 1.17, Norwich 1.96.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Norwich are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Preston's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Norwich's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Preston are bottom on 8 points from 15 games; Norwich are 12th on 21 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Preston have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Southampton.
- Norwich are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Bristol City.
- Last 6 meetings: Norwich 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Norwich 2–0 Preston.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Preston vs Norwich
Has the model earned this number?
Norwich at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Preston vs Norwich
Preston
Championship
- W1-0Southampton7 November 2026
- L2-3Sheffield Utd3 November 2026
- L0-2away to Stoke City31 October 2026
- D1-1West Brom24 October 2026
- L1-4away to Wrexham17 October 2026
Norwich
Championship
- W5-0away to Bristol City7 November 2026
- W4-0away to Derby3 November 2026
- W3-2Watford31 October 2026
- W3-1away to Charlton24 October 2026
- L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026
What these results say
- Preston failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preston conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Norwich won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 8 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Preston
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 76% today
Norwich
Chance to finish in the top two · 11% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Preston vs Norwich
- 14 March 2026Norwich 2–0 PrestonChampionship
- 20 December 2025Preston 1–1 NorwichChampionship
- 11 February 2025Norwich 0–1 PrestonChampionship
- 22 October 2024Preston 2–2 NorwichChampionship
- 13 April 2024Preston 0–1 NorwichChampionship
- 9 December 2023Norwich 0–0 PrestonChampionship
Leading scorers: Preston and Norwich
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Preston a 0% chance of the title and Norwich 3.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norwich the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Preston against 1.96 for Norwich. Preston's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.35 for Norwich.
How the model reaches 51% for Norwich to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Norwich to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Preston's ratings add 9 points and Norwich's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level31%+1
- Preston's ratings40%+9
- Norwich's ratings51%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Preston at home · Norwich away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PrestonNorwich
Preston are 24th after 15 Championship matches (between 21st and 24th so far); Norwich are 12th after 15 (between 9th and 23rd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Preston 15, Norwich 15.
Norwich score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Preston have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Preston
- at Burnley6 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
- vs Portsmouth9 Dec · Championshipwin 30%
- vs Middlesbrough12 Dec · Championshipwin 22%
Norwich
- vs Wrexham5 Dec · Championshipwin 51%
- at Blackburn8 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
- at Lincoln13 Dec · Championshipwin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.