Colchester
vs
York
League Two prediction
Our model says: Colchester 1–0 York
The model makes it 36% Colchester, 28% draw, 36% York — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Colchester 1.34, York 1.35.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Colchester and York are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Colchester's rating is built from 60 League Two matches and York's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Colchester are 21st on 15 points from 14 games; York are 4th on 23 points from 15 games — League Two.
- Colchester have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Gillingham.
- York have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Rochdale.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Colchester vs York
Has the model earned this number?
Colchester at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Colchester vs York
Colchester
League Two
- W2-0Gillingham14 November 2026
- L1-3Walsall31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Northampton24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chesterfield20 October 2026
- D0-0Exeter City17 October 2026
York
League Two
- W1-0away to Rochdale14 November 2026
- L2-5away to Grimsby31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet27 October 2026
- W2-0Port Vale24 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026
What these results say
- Colchester failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Colchester had two goals or fewer.
- York scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Colchester | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 15 |
| 4 | York | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Colchester
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today
York
Chance to finish in the top three · 22% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Colchester and York
Colchester
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
York
GoalsAssists
- O. Pearce74
- A. Newby61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour York (4th, with Colchester 21st), while our numbers lean to Colchester. Colchester rate 0.43 in attack and 1.95 in defence, York 0.57 and 2.13 (lower is better in defence), so Colchester have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 8-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colchester a 0% chance of the title and York 4.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colchester the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Colchester against 1.35 for York. Colchester's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.13 for York.
How the model reaches 36% for Colchester to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Colchester to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Colchester's ratings take away 3 points and York's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Colchester's ratings38%−3
- York's ratings36%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Colchester at home · York away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Colchester 14, York 15.
Colchester score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); York have let in 3 there.
York score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Colchester have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Colchester
- at Grimsby1 Dec · League Twowin 22%
- at Salford City12 Dec · League Twowin 23%
- vs Port Vale15 Dec · League Twowin 38%
- vs Fleetwood Town19 Dec · League Twowin 38%
York
- vs Shrewsbury1 Dec · League Twowin 52%
- at Tranmere12 Dec · League Twowin 40%
- vs Crawley Town19 Dec · League Twowin 54%
- at Oldham26 Dec · League Twowin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.