Fixtures & Predictions
Championship predictions
36 matches ahead, from 21 November to 29 November, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: West Ham, 69% against Preston. 4 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.
1 home · X draw · 2 away — fair odds, times in UTC
Saturday 21 November — 11 matches
- 12:30 UTC Southampton vs Derby — model 64% / 22% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.56 · 4.55 · 7.14. One-sided: Southampton
- 12:30 UTC Millwall vs QPR — model 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.70 · 3.23. Evenly matched
- 12:30 UTC Norwich vs Cardiff — model 54% / 22% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.55 · 4.17. Edge: Norwich
- 15:00 UTC Wolves vs Charlton — model 57% / 26% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.75 · 3.85 · 5.88. One-sided: Wolves
- 15:00 UTC West Ham vs Preston — model 69% / 18% / 13%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.45 · 5.56 · 7.69. One-sided: West Ham
- 15:00 UTC Sheffield Utd vs Watford — model 52% / 27% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.70 · 4.76. Edge: Sheffield Utd
- 15:00 UTC Bolton vs Portsmouth — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
- 15:00 UTC Middlesbrough vs Bristol City — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. One-sided: Middlesbrough
- 15:00 UTC Stoke City vs Birmingham — model 33% / 30% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.33 · 2.70. Edge: Birmingham
- 15:00 UTC Swansea vs West Brom — model 38% / 30% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.33 · 3.13. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Lincoln vs Wrexham — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
Sunday 22 November — 1 match
- 12:00 UTC Burnley vs Blackburn — model 39% / 27% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.70 · 2.94. Evenly matched
Tuesday 24 November — 8 matches
- 19:45 UTC Cardiff vs Preston — model 59% / 22% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 4.55 · 5.26. Edge: Cardiff
- 19:45 UTC Bristol City vs Wrexham — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
- 19:45 UTC Sheffield Utd vs Southampton — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: Southampton
- 19:45 UTC Middlesbrough vs Swansea — model 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.70 · 4.17. Edge: Middlesbrough
- 19:45 UTC Norwich vs QPR — model 51% / 24% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.17 · 4.00. Evenly matched
- 19:45 UTC Charlton vs Lincoln — model 37% / 31% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.23 · 3.13. Evenly matched
- 19:45 UTC Portsmouth vs West Ham — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: West Ham
- 20:00 UTC Wolves vs Derby — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. Edge: Wolves
Wednesday 25 November — 4 matches
- 19:45 UTC Watford vs Blackburn — model 33% / 31% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.23 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
- 19:45 UTC Burnley vs Birmingham — model 27% / 26% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 3.85 · 2.13. One-sided: Birmingham
- 19:45 UTC Bolton vs West Brom — model 30% / 29% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.45 · 2.44. Edge: West Brom
- 20:00 UTC Stoke City vs Millwall — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
Friday 27 November — 1 match
Saturday 28 November — 10 matches
- 12:30 UTC Preston vs Norwich — model 24% / 25% / 51%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 4.00 · 1.96. One-sided: Norwich
- 12:30 UTC Blackburn vs Charlton — model 47% / 30% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.33 · 4.35. Edge: Blackburn
- 12:30 UTC Lincoln vs Wolves — model 28% / 28% / 44%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.57 · 2.27. Edge: Wolves
- 15:00 UTC West Ham vs Stoke City — model 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.17 · 4.17. Edge: West Ham
- 15:00 UTC Birmingham vs Bolton — model 61% / 23% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.35 · 6.25. One-sided: Birmingham
- 15:00 UTC Millwall vs Burnley — model 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.17 · 4.17. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC West Brom vs Bristol City — model 52% / 28% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.57 · 5.00. Edge: West Brom
- 15:00 UTC Derby vs Watford — model 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.45 · 3.57. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC QPR vs Sheffield Utd — model 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.57 · 3.33. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Wrexham vs Portsmouth — model 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.33 · 3.45. Evenly matched
Sunday 29 November — 1 match
- 12:00 UTC Swansea vs Cardiff — model 47% / 25% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 4.00 · 3.57. Evenly matched
Last round: the model's hits and misses
4–7 November: the model called the result of 7 of 15 matches. Across all 180 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 48% of results.
- Cardiff 3–3 West Ham — the model said 33% / 24% / 43%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
- Wrexham 2–0 Middlesbrough — the model said 30% / 27% / 43%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
- Bristol City 1–2 Wolves — the model said 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
- Derby 3–1 Bolton — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
- Bristol City 0–5 Norwich — the model said 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
- Portsmouth 1–2 Stoke City — the model said 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Wrexham 1–1 Wolves — the model said 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
- Birmingham 2–1 Swansea — the model said 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
- Blackburn 2–1 West Ham — the model said 30% / 25% / 45%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
- Cardiff 5–4 Burnley — the model said 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
- Charlton 2–1 Sheffield Utd — the model said 28% / 30% / 42%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
- Preston 1–0 Southampton — the model said 18% / 23% / 59%, most likely 0-2: result missed.
- QPR 2–1 Lincoln — the model said 51% / 26% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
- Watford 0–0 Middlesbrough — the model said 23% / 27% / 50%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
- West Brom 3–0 Millwall — the model said 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Championship so far
Top of the table
- 1. Birmingham — 29 pts from 15 (8W 5D 2L, goals 28–14)
- 2. Middlesbrough — 29 pts from 15 (8W 5D 2L, goals 30–19)
- 3. Stoke City — 29 pts from 15 (9W 2D 4L, goals 24–18)
- 4. Wolves — 28 pts from 15 (8W 4D 3L, goals 26–18)
- 5. West Brom — 28 pts from 15 (8W 4D 3L, goals 23–15)
The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 372 matches left: Birmingham 21.8%, Middlesbrough 21.3%, Southampton 18.7%.
Leading scorers: W. Lankshear (Middlesbrough) 13 goals, A. Guðjohnsen (Blackburn) 10 goals, J. Moylan (Cardiff) 10 goals.
Championship table · Accuracy by competition · Head-to-head records · All competitions