Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Železničar Pančevo vs OFK Beograd Super Liga prediction

Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Our model says: Železničar Pančevo 2–0 OFK Beograd

The model makes it 59% Železničar Pančevo, 24% draw, 17% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Železničar Pančevo 2.06, OFK Beograd 0.87.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Železničar Pančevo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Železničar Pančevo's rating is built from 51 Serbian SuperLiga matches and OFK Beograd's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.

Key facts

  • Železničar Pančevo are 3rd on 29 points from 14 games; OFK Beograd are 12th on 11 points from 15 games — Super Liga.
  • Železničar Pančevo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Radnicki 1923.
  • OFK Beograd have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Radnik Surdulica.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended OFK Beograd 2–2 Železničar Pančevo.

More Serbian SuperLiga predictions

All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Železničar Pančevo vs OFK Beograd

51%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Železničar Pančevo win Draw OFK Beograd win
  1. 2–011%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 1–110%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 3–08%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Železničar Pančevo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Železničar Pančevo at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Železničar Pančevo vs OFK Beograd

Železničar Pančevo

Super Liga

  • W3-1Radnicki 19237 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Radnicki 192328 October 2026
  • W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd23 October 2026
  • W1-0FK Partizan18 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Zemun11 October 2026

OFK Beograd

Super Liga

  • L1-2away to Radnik Surdulica8 November 2026
  • L0-2Vojvodina1 November 2026
  • L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Macva17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Mladost Lucani12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Železničar Pančevo won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Železničar Pančevo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for OFK Beograd had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Železničar Pančevo149232412+1229
12OFK Beograd152581527-1211

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

OFK Beograd

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today

Win 32%
Draw 45%
Defeat 50%

From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Železničar Pančevo vs OFK Beograd

  • 9 August 2026OFK Beograd 2–2 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
  • 2 May 2026Železničar Pančevo 2–0 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 21 February 2026OFK Beograd 0–0 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
  • 20 September 2025Železničar Pančevo 1–3 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 12 March 2025OFK Beograd 1–2 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
  • 22 September 2024Železničar Pančevo 0–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Železničar Pančevo and OFK Beograd

Železničar Pančevo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Ankeye50
  • K. Kwaku42

OFK Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Silue70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Železničar Pančevo a 0.2% chance of the title and OFK Beograd 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Železničar Pančevo OFK Beograd
0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
1.3 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.93
2.06 Model expected goals (this match) 0.87

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Železničar Pančevo the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Železničar Pančevo against 0.87 for OFK Beograd. Železničar Pančevo's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.93 for OFK Beograd.

Železničar Pančevo carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.19 for OFK Beograd.

How the model reaches 59% for Železničar Pančevo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Železničar Pančevo to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Železničar Pančevo's ratings add 9 points and OFK Beograd's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 59%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage42%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−1
  4. Železničar Pančevo's ratings50%+9
  5. OFK Beograd's ratings59%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Železničar PančevoOFK Beograd
14Matches15
9W 2D 3LRecord2W 5D 8L
24 1.7 per gameGoals scored15 1.0 per game
12 0.9 per gameGoals conceded27 1.8 per game
5 of 14Clean sheets3 of 15
3 of 14Failed to score6 of 15
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
44 3.1 per gameYellow cards35 2.3 per game
2Red cards1
4-1-4-1 12×Usual shape4-1-4-1 6×

Železničar Pančevo at home · OFK Beograd away

8Played8
6W 1D 1LRecord1W 2D 5L
16–6Goals for – against8–16
3 of 8Clean sheets1 of 8

League matches only, Super Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super Liga matches this season: Železničar Pančevo 14, OFK Beograd 15.

Železničar Pančevo scored 542264
OFK Beograd conceded 326546

Železničar Pančevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); OFK Beograd have let in 4 there.

OFK Beograd scored 331241
Železničar Pančevo conceded 320322

OFK Beograd score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Železničar Pančevo have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Železničar Pančevo

  • at FK Crvena Zvezda6 Dec · Super Ligawin 18%
  • vs Vojvodina6 Feb · Super Ligawin 38%
  • at Radnik Surdulica13 Feb · Super Ligawin 42%

OFK Beograd

  • vs Cukaricki6 Dec · Super Ligawin 37%
  • at Zemun6 Feb · Super Ligawin 46%
  • vs FK Partizan13 Feb · Super Ligawin 35%
  • at IMT Novi Beograd20 Feb · Super Ligawin 24%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.