Novi Pazar
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 15% Novi Pazar, 23% draw, 62% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 6.67, 4.35 and 1.61.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Novi Pazar 0.81, FK Crvena Zvezda 2.12.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FK Crvena Zvezda are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Model insights: Novi Pazar vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Has the model earned this number?
FK Crvena Zvezda at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Novi Pazar vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Novi Pazar
Super Liga
- W2-0Mladost Lucani8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Radnicki 19231 November 2026
- W2-0away to Radnicki NIS23 October 2026
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd18 October 2026
- L0-1away to FK Partizan11 October 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga
- W1-0away to Vojvodina8 November 2026
- W4-2away to Macva31 October 2026
- W1-0away to OFK Beograd25 October 2026
- W5-1Mladost Lucani18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Novi Pazar had two goals or fewer.
- FK Crvena Zvezda won every one of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 6 | +32 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Novi Pazar vs FK Crvena Zvezda
- 8 August 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 2–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 9 May 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 1–2 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 5 March 2026Novi Pazar 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaCup
- 7 February 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 5–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 31 August 2025Novi Pazar 1–5 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 17 May 2025Novi Pazar 3–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Novi Pazar and FK Crvena Zvezda
Novi Pazar
GoalsAssists
- K. Dixon52
FK Crvena Zvezda
GoalsAssists
- B. Dieng50
- V. Kostov43
- A. Katai34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Novi Pazar a 0% chance of the title and FK Crvena Zvezda 99.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Novi Pazar against 2.12 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Novi Pazar's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.02 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
How the model reaches 62% for FK Crvena Zvezda to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FK Crvena Zvezda to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Novi Pazar's ratings add 14 points and FK Crvena Zvezda's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Novi Pazar's ratings45%+14
- FK Crvena Zvezda's ratings62%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.