Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Jeju United FC 1-1 Gwangju FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Jeju United FC, 25% draw, 24% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Jeju United FC at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC
Line-ups
- 1Kim Dong-JunG
- 47Min-jae ParkD
- 2Tobias FigueiredoD
- 41Kim Jae-WooD
- 40Kim Ryun-SeongD
- 24Choi Byung-WookM
- 33Park Su-BinM
- 8Lee Chang-MinM
- 94Emerson NeguebaM
- 18Kim Sin-JinF
- 7Chang-Jun ParkF
- 22E. ÇinariF
- 81Heo Ja-UngG
- 6Gi-min KwonD
- 10Lee Kun-HeeF
- 23Rim Chang-WooD
- 11Shin Sang-EunF
- 3J. CélestineD
- 13Chung WoonD
- 55Dong-hwi KangM
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 17João PedroD
- 3Lee Min-GiD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 21Kim Jong-SukM
- 9Ha Seung-UnM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 16Jung Ji-HunM
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 1Kim Kyeong-MinG
- 70Kim Woo-jinM
- 24Yong-hyuk KimD
- 88Moon Min-seoM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 66Bae Jin-WooD
- 6Ahn Young-KyuD
Form going into Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC
Jeju United FC
K League 1
- D1-1away to Pohang Steelers1 November 2026
- L1-3away to Incheon United24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Jeonbuk Motors18 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Seoul10 October 2026
Gwangju FC
K League 1
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Bucheon FC 199524 October 2026
- L2-3away to Daejeon Citizen18 October 2026
- W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
What these results say
- Jeju United FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Jeju United FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jeju United FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gwangju FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Gwangju FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 48 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC
- 9 September 2026Gwangju FC 0–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 26 July 2026Gwangju FC 1–2 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 1 March 2026Jeju United FC 0–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 2 November 2025Gwangju FC 2–0 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 30 August 2025Jeju United FC 0–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 18 June 2025Jeju United FC 0–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
Leading scorers: Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC
Jeju United FC
GoalsAssists
- Emerson Negueba62
- Lee Kun-Hee41
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Jeju United FC at 51% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ha Seung-un 2' for Gwangju FC, Park Chang-Jun 45+1' for Jeju United FC.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jeju United FC a 66.6% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 77.1% after a win, 58.1% after a draw, 49.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 58.1%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our K League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.