Ipswich
vs
Aston Villa
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Ipswich 1–2 Aston Villa
The model makes it 29% Ipswich, 23% draw, 48% Aston Villa — fair odds of 3.45, 4.35 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Ipswich 1.71, Aston Villa 2.30.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Edge to Aston Villa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Ipswich's rating is built from 10 Premier League matches and Aston Villa's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Ipswich are 14th on 11 points from 10 games; Aston Villa are 10th on 13 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Ipswich are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bournemouth.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 4-4 draw away to Manchester United.
- Last 6 meetings: Aston Villa 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2025, ended Aston Villa 1–1 Ipswich.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ipswich vs Aston Villa
Has the model earned this number?
Aston Villa at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ipswich vs Aston Villa
Ipswich
Premier League
- L1-2Bournemouth8 November 2026
- D2-2away to Hull City31 October 2026
- D1-1Nottingham Forest23 October 2026
- L2-3away to Manchester City17 October 2026
- W2-1Fulham10 October 2026
Aston Villa
Premier League
- D4-4away to Manchester United8 November 2026
- D1-1Fulham31 October 2026
- W2-1Manchester City24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Newcastle17 October 2026
- D2-2Brentford10 October 2026
What these results say
- Ipswich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ipswich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ipswich.
- Aston Villa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ipswich
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
Aston Villa
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Ipswich
Aston Villa and Ipswich have met 6 times in the records we hold, Aston Villa has won 3 of them to Ipswich's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Aston Villa on 15 Feb 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 5 |
| Ipswich | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 15 Feb 2025
Premier LeagueAston Villa 1–1 Ipswich - 29 Sep 2024
Premier LeagueIpswich 2–2 Aston Villa - 26 Jan 2019
ChampionshipAston Villa 2–1 Ipswich - 18 Aug 2018
ChampionshipIpswich 1–1 Aston Villa - 21 Apr 2018
ChampionshipIpswich 0–4 Aston Villa - 25 Nov 2017
ChampionshipAston Villa 2–0 Ipswich
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Aston Villa's attack rates 24% above Ipswich's, and Aston Villa concede 21% fewer than Ipswich. That gives Aston Villa the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.36 | 0.97 |
| Ipswich | 1.10 | 1.23 |
Leading scorers: Ipswich and Aston Villa
Ipswich
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ipswich a 0% chance of the title and Aston Villa 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Ipswich against 2.30 for Aston Villa. Ipswich's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.36/0.97 for Aston Villa.
How the model reaches 48% for Aston Villa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Aston Villa to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Ipswich's ratings add 7 points and Aston Villa's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Both sides at this match's level34%+2
- Ipswich's ratings41%+7
- Aston Villa's ratings48%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ipswich at home · Aston Villa away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
IpswichAston Villa
Ipswich are 14th after 10 Premier League matches (between 4th and 14th so far); Aston Villa are 10th after 10 (between 6th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Ipswich 10, Aston Villa 10.
Ipswich score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Aston Villa have let in 3 there.
Aston Villa score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Ipswich have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ipswich
- at Coventry1 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Leeds5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Newcastle12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Brighton20 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 14%
Aston Villa
- vs Everton2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- vs Crystal Palace5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- vs Paris Saint Germain8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.