Malaga
vs
Athletic Club
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Malaga 0–1 Athletic Club
The model makes it 26% Malaga, 28% draw, 46% Athletic Club — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Malaga 0.97, Athletic Club 1.49.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
One-sided: Athletic Club are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Malaga's rating is built from 12 La Liga matches and Athletic Club's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Malaga are bottom on 5 points from 12 games; Athletic Club are 7th on 16 points from 11 games — La Liga.
- Malaga have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Racing Santander.
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Osasuna.
- Last 6 meetings: Athletic Club 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2018, ended Athletic Club 2–1 Malaga.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Malaga vs Athletic Club
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Malaga vs Athletic Club
Malaga
La Liga
- L1-2Racing Santander7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Real Betis31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Alaves23 October 2026
- L2-5Real Sociedad18 October 2026
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
Athletic Club
La Liga
- D1-1away to Osasuna7 November 2026
- W2-1Real Sociedad1 November 2026
- W4-0Getafe25 October 2026
- L1-3away to Levante21 October 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia17 October 2026
What these results say
- Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Malaga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Malaga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Malaga
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 88% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Malaga
Athletic Club and Malaga have met 6 times in the records we hold, Athletic Club has won 3 of them to Malaga's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Athletic Club won the last one 2–1 on 25 Feb 2018.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Malaga | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Feb 2018
La LigaAthletic Club 2–1 Malaga - 23 Sep 2017
La LigaMalaga 3–3 Athletic Club - 5 Mar 2017
La LigaAthletic Club 1–0 Malaga - 2 Oct 2016
La LigaMalaga 2–1 Athletic Club - 17 Apr 2016
La LigaMalaga 0–1 Athletic Club - 6 Dec 2015
La LigaAthletic Club 0–0 Malaga
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Athletic Club's attack rates 46% above Malaga's, and Athletic Club concede 27% fewer than Malaga. That gives Athletic Club the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Malaga | 0.67 | 1.24 |
Leading scorers: Malaga and Athletic Club
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Malaga against 1.49 for Athletic Club. Malaga's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/0.9 for Athletic Club.
How the model reaches 46% for Athletic Club to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Athletic Club to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Malaga's ratings add 8 points and Athletic Club's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Malaga's ratings37%+8
- Athletic Club's ratings46%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Malaga at home · Athletic Club away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MalagaAthletic Club
Malaga are 20th after 12 La Liga matches (between 16th and 20th so far); Athletic Club are 7th after 11 (between 7th and 19th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Malaga 12, Athletic Club 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Malaga
- at Sevilla6 Dec · La Ligawin 19%
- vs Barcelona13 Dec · La Ligawin 11%
- at Rayo Vallecano20 Dec · La Ligawin 19%
- vs Elche3 Jan · La Ligawin 31%
Athletic Club
- vs Real Madrid6 Dec · La Ligawin 21%
- at Deportivo La Coruna13 Dec · La Ligawin 32%
- vs Real Betis20 Dec · La Ligawin 35%
- at Racing Santander3 Jan · La Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.