Regular Season - 18 · 29 November 2026, 12:00 UTC

Swansea vs Cardiff Championship prediction

Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea

Our model says: Swansea 2–1 Cardiff

The model makes it 47% Swansea, 25% draw, 28% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Swansea 1.86, Cardiff 1.34.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Swansea's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Cardiff's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

Swansea are 6th on 26 points from 15 games; Cardiff are 14th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
Swansea have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Birmingham.
Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-4 win at home to Burnley.
Last 6 meetings: Swansea 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 January 2025, ended Cardiff 3–0 Swansea.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Swansea vs Cardiff

63%

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Swansea win Draw Cardiff win

1–111%
2–19%
1–07%
2–07%
1–27%
2–26%
3–16%

Scores read Swansea first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Swansea at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Swansea vs Cardiff

Swansea

Championship

L1-2away to Birmingham7 November 2026
L1-3away to Portsmouth3 November 2026
W4-0Blackburn31 October 2026
L0-5away to QPR24 October 2026
L0-1West Ham17 October 2026

Cardiff

Championship

W5-4Burnley7 November 2026
D3-3West Ham4 November 2026
L0-3away to Wolves31 October 2026
W1-0Birmingham24 October 2026
D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026

What these results say

Swansea failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Swansea had three goals or more.
Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Cardiff conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	+4	26
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	0	18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Swansea

Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today

Win 6%

Draw 4%

Defeat 3%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Swansea

Cardiff and Swansea have met 6 times in the records we hold, Swansea has won 3 of them to Cardiff's 2, with 1 drawn.

The record

Cardiff won the last one 3–0 on 18 Jan 2025.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Cardiff	2	1	3	8	8
Swansea	3	1	2	8	8

Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

18 Jan 2025
ChampionshipCardiff 3–0 Swansea
25 Aug 2024
ChampionshipSwansea 1–1 Cardiff
16 Mar 2024
ChampionshipSwansea 2–0 Cardiff
16 Sep 2023
ChampionshipCardiff 2–0 Swansea
1 Apr 2023
ChampionshipCardiff 2–3 Swansea
23 Oct 2022
ChampionshipSwansea 2–0 Cardiff

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Cardiff's attack rates 23% above Swansea's, and Swansea concede 25% fewer than Cardiff. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Cardiff	0.91	1.65
Swansea	0.74	1.23

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Swansea and Cardiff

Swansea

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Cardiff

GoalsAssists

J. Moylan103
Y. Salech51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swansea a 1.9% chance of the title and Cardiff 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Swansea Cardiff

0.74 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.91

1.23 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.65

1.86 Model expected goals (this match) 1.34

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Swansea against 1.34 for Cardiff. Swansea's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.65 for Cardiff.

Swansea carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.57 for Cardiff. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 47% for Swansea to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Swansea to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Swansea's ratings change nothing and Cardiff's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Both sides at this match's level44%+2
Swansea's ratings44%±0
Cardiff's ratings47%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

SwanseaModelCardiff

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

83%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

62%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

40%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

63%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

SwanseaCardiff

15Matches15

8W 2D 5LRecord4W 6D 5L

22 1.5 per gameGoals scored27 1.8 per game

18 1.2 per gameGoals conceded27 1.8 per game

6 of 15Clean sheets1 of 15

4 of 15Failed to score3 of 15

2 of 3Penalties scored3 of 5

25 1.7 per gameYellow cards28 1.9 per game

1Red cards1

4-3-3 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

Swansea at home · Cardiff away

7Played7

4W 2D 1LRecord0W 2D 5L

11–3Goals for – against6–14

4 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

SwanseaCardiff

Swansea are 6th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Cardiff are 14th after 15 (between 11th and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Swansea 15, Cardiff 15.

Swansea scored 424623

Cardiff conceded 654723

Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Cardiff have let in 7 there.

Cardiff scored 439163

Swansea conceded 524213

Cardiff score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Swansea have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Swansea

at Bristol City5 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
vs Bolton8 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
at Charlton12 Dec · Championshipwin 41%

Cardiff

vs Lincoln5 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
at West Brom8 Dec · Championshipwin 26%
vs Southampton12 Dec · Championshipwin 31%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.