Chapecoense
vs
Palmeiras
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Chapecoense 0–2 Palmeiras
The model makes it 13% Chapecoense, 22% draw, 65% Palmeiras — fair odds of 7.69, 4.55 and 1.54.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Chapecoense 0.71, Palmeiras 2.17.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
One-sided: Palmeiras are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chapecoense are bottom on 21 points from 34 games; Palmeiras are 2nd on 73 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Chapecoense are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Vasco da Gama.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to Remo.
- Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Palmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chapecoense vs Palmeiras
Has the model earned this number?
Palmeiras at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chapecoense vs Palmeiras
Chapecoense
Serie A
- L0-2Vasco da Gama14 November 2026
- L1-2Mirassol3 November 2026
- L0-3away to RB Bragantino28 October 2026
- W2-1Fluminense24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026
Palmeiras
Serie A
- W6-1Remo5 November 2026
- D0-0away to Santos28 October 2026
- W2-0RB Bragantino24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Atletico Paranaense17 October 2026
- W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 70 | -37 | 21 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Palmeiras
Chance to win the league · 21% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Palmeiras
Chapecoense and Palmeiras have met 6 times in the records we hold, Palmeiras has won 6 of them to Chapecoense's 0.
The record
Palmeiras won the last one 1–0 on 31 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| Palmeiras | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 May 2026
Serie APalmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense - 18 Sep 2021
Serie AChapecoense 0–2 Palmeiras - 6 Jun 2021
Serie APalmeiras 3–1 Chapecoense - 17 Oct 2019
Serie APalmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense - 2 Jun 2019
Serie AChapecoense 1–2 Palmeiras - 2 Sep 2018
Serie AChapecoense 1–2 Palmeiras
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Palmeiras' attack rates 74% above Chapecoense's, and Palmeiras concede 60% fewer than Chapecoense. That gives Palmeiras the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 0.66 | 1.69 |
| Palmeiras | 1.15 | 0.68 |
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Palmeiras
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López107
- Maurício101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chapecoense a 0% chance of the title and Palmeiras 20.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Chapecoense against 2.17 for Palmeiras. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.68 for Palmeiras.
How the model reaches 65% for Palmeiras to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palmeiras to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Chapecoense's ratings add 19 points and Palmeiras's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Both sides at this match's level27%−1
- Chapecoense's ratings46%+19
- Palmeiras's ratings65%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Chapecoense at home · Palmeiras away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Chapecoense 34, Palmeiras 34.
Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Palmeiras have let in 7 there.
Palmeiras score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Chapecoense have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Chapecoense
- at Flamengo3 Dec · Serie Awin 5%
Palmeiras
- vs Estudiantes La Plata28 Nov · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 69%
- vs Coritiba3 Dec · Serie Awin 73%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.