Regular Season - 35 · 18 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Remo vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction

Estadio Evandro Almeida, Belem
Referee: A. Gomes Stefano

Our model says: Remo 2–1 Chapecoense

The model makes it 55% Remo, 24% draw, 21% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Remo 1.98, Chapecoense 1.00.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Remo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Remo are 19th on 29 points from 34 games; Chapecoense are bottom on 21 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Remo have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Palmeiras.
  • Chapecoense are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Vasco da Gama.
  • Last 3 meetings: Remo 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Chapecoense 2–3 Remo.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Remo vs Chapecoense

55%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Remo win Draw Chapecoense win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Remo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 41%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Remo at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Remo vs Chapecoense

Remo

Serie A

  • L1-6away to Palmeiras5 November 2026
  • W2-1Botafogo29 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cruzeiro23 October 2026
  • D1-1RB Bragantino18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Vasco da Gama10 October 2026

Chapecoense

Serie A

  • L0-2Vasco da Gama14 November 2026
  • L1-2Mirassol3 November 2026
  • L0-3away to RB Bragantino28 October 2026
  • W2-1Fluminense24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Remo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Remo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Remo34611173757-2029
20Chapecoense3449213370-3721

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Remo vs Chapecoense

  • 17 May 2026Chapecoense 2–3 RemoSerie A
  • 2 November 2025Remo 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
  • 13 July 2025Chapecoense 1–1 RemoSerie B

Leading scorers: Remo and Chapecoense

Remo

GoalsAssists

  • Jája Silva91

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Remo Chapecoense
0.74 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.66
1.36 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.69
1.98 Model expected goals (this match) 1.00

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Remo the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Remo against 1.00 for Chapecoense. Remo's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.69 for Chapecoense.

How the model reaches 55% for Remo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Remo to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Remo's ratings add 4 points and Chapecoense's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 55%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+1
  4. Remo's ratings50%+4
  5. Chapecoense's ratings55%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

RemoChapecoense
34Matches34
6W 11D 17LRecord4W 9D 21L
37 1.1 per gameGoals scored33 1.0 per game
57 1.7 per gameGoals conceded70 2.1 per game
4 of 34Clean sheets2 of 34
11 of 34Failed to score12 of 34
1 of 3Penalties scored2 of 3
72 2.1 per gameYellow cards76 2.2 per game
5Red cards2
4-2-3-1 25×Usual shape4-2-3-1 16×

Remo at home · Chapecoense away

17Played17
4W 7D 6LRecord1W 4D 12L
22–22Goals for – against11–32
2 of 17Clean sheets0 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Remo 34, Chapecoense 34.

Remo scored 6399410
Chapecoense conceded 71312131112

Remo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Chapecoense have let in 12 there.

Chapecoense scored 3675410
Remo conceded 610118414

Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Remo have let in 14 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Remo

Chapecoense

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.