Regular Season - 35 · 18 November 2026, 23:30 UTC

Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction

Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Referee: A. Daronco

Our model says: Cruzeiro 0–1 Palmeiras

The model makes it 31% Cruzeiro, 28% draw, 41% Palmeiras — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.17, Palmeiras 1.43.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Palmeiras: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cruzeiro's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Palmeiras's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,101 matches.

Key facts

  • Cruzeiro are 3rd on 60 points from 34 games; Palmeiras are 2nd on 73 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Cruzeiro are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Bahia.
  • Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to Remo.
  • Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Palmeiras 1–1 Cruzeiro.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cruzeiro win Draw Palmeiras win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Cruzeiro first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Palmeiras at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras

Cruzeiro

Serie A

  • W3-2Bahia6 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Atletico Mineiro29 October 2026
  • W1-0Remo23 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Gremio18 October 2026
  • L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026

Palmeiras

Serie A

  • W6-1Remo5 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Santos28 October 2026
  • W2-0RB Bragantino24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Atletico Paranaense17 October 2026
  • W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Palmeiras won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Cruzeiro34186105548+760
2Palmeiras34211036223+3973

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Cruzeiro

Chance to finish in the top four · 95% today

Win 99%
Draw 96%
Defeat 91%

Palmeiras

Chance to win the league · 21% today

Win 32%
Draw 17%
Defeat 7%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras

  • 17 May 2026Palmeiras 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 26 October 2025Palmeiras 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 1 June 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 5 December 2024Cruzeiro 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 21 July 2024Palmeiras 2–0 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 7 December 2023Cruzeiro 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A

The full Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras record →

Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Palmeiras

Cruzeiro

GoalsAssists

  • Kaio Jorge142
  • Matheus Pereira97

Palmeiras

GoalsAssists

  • J. López107
  • Maurício101

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cruzeiro a 0% chance of the title and Palmeiras 20.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Cruzeiro v Palmeiras has moved

First published on 4 Nov at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Palmeiras's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cruzeiro win31%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Palmeiras win41%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cruzeiro Palmeiras
1.09 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.15
1.11 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.68
1.17 Model expected goals (this match) 1.43

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cruzeiro against 1.43 for Palmeiras. Cruzeiro's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.68 for Palmeiras.

Cruzeiro carry a model rating of 6.85 against 7.12 for Palmeiras.

How the model reaches 41% for Palmeiras to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palmeiras to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cruzeiro's ratings add 8 points and Palmeiras's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. Cruzeiro's ratings35%+8
  5. Palmeiras's ratings41%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CruzeiroPalmeiras
34Matches34
18W 6D 10LRecord21W 10D 3L
55 1.6 per gameGoals scored62 1.8 per game
48 1.4 per gameGoals conceded23 0.7 per game
8 of 34Clean sheets16 of 34
4 of 34Failed to score5 of 34
4 of 6Penalties scored3 of 5
85 2.5 per gameYellow cards77 2.3 per game
3Red cards6
4-2-3-1 32×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Cruzeiro at home · Palmeiras away

17Played17
10W 4D 3LRecord8W 7D 2L
30–18Goals for – against26–12
5 of 17Clean sheets9 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Cruzeiro 34, Palmeiras 34.

Cruzeiro scored 671081015
Palmeiras conceded 217737

Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Palmeiras have let in 7 there.

Palmeiras scored 12119999
Cruzeiro conceded 78117212

Palmeiras score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Cruzeiro

Palmeiras

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.