Regular Season - 35 · 18 November 2026, 23:30 UTC

Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: R. Klein

Our model says: Flamengo 2–0 Atletico Paranaense

The model makes it 68% Flamengo, 19% draw, 13% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).

Expected goals: Flamengo 2.63, Atletico Paranaense 0.90.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Flamengo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Flamengo's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Atletico Paranaense's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,101 matches.

Key facts

  • Flamengo are top on 76 points from 34 games; Atletico Paranaense are 5th on 54 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Gremio.
  • Atletico Paranaense are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Vasco da Gama.
  • Last 6 meetings: Flamengo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense

55%
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Flamengo win Draw Atletico Paranaense win
  1. 2–010%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 3–09%
  4. 3–18%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 1–17%
  7. 4–06%

Scores read Flamengo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Flamengo at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense

Flamengo

Serie A

  • W3-1Gremio4 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Vasco da Gama29 October 2026
  • W3-2Atletico Mineiro26 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Bahia18 October 2026
  • W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026

Atletico Paranaense

Serie A

  • L1-3Vasco da Gama4 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Gremio30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Vitoria24 October 2026
  • L0-2Palmeiras17 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Flamengo won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Flamengo had three goals or more.
  • Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Paranaense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Flamengo3423747129+4276
5Atletico Paranaense34159105143+854

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Flamengo

Chance to win the league · 79% today

Win 84%
Draw 68%
Defeat 57%

Atletico Paranaense

Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today

Win 40%
Draw 18%
Defeat 10%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense

  • 17 May 2026Atletico Paranaense 1–1 FlamengoSerie A
  • 29 September 2024Flamengo 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 16 June 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–1 FlamengoSerie A
  • 14 September 2023Flamengo 0–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 13 July 2023Atletico Paranaense 0–2 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
  • 6 July 2023Flamengo 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil

The full Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense record →

Leading scorers: Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense

Flamengo

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro206
  • Samuel Lino129

Atletico Paranaense

GoalsAssists

  • K. Viveros213

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Flamengo a 79.2% chance of the title and Atletico Paranaense 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Flamengo v Atletico Paranaense has moved

First published on 4 Nov at 65% / 20% / 15% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 68% / 19% / 13%: the biggest move is Flamengo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Flamengo win68%▲ +3
  2. Draw19%▼ −1
  3. Atletico Paranaense win13%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Flamengo Atletico Paranaense
1.34 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.98
0.82 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.24
2.63 Model expected goals (this match) 0.90

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Flamengo against 0.90 for Atletico Paranaense. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 1.34/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.24 for Atletico Paranaense.

Flamengo carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.74 for Atletico Paranaense.

How the model reaches 68% for Flamengo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Flamengo to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Flamengo's ratings add 10 points and Atletico Paranaense's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 68%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level47%+2
  4. Flamengo's ratings57%+10
  5. Atletico Paranaense's ratings68%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FlamengoAtletico Paranaense
34Matches34
23W 7D 4LRecord15W 9D 10L
71 2.1 per gameGoals scored51 1.5 per game
29 0.9 per gameGoals conceded43 1.3 per game
14 of 34Clean sheets8 of 34
2 of 34Failed to score8 of 34
5 of 5Penalties scored5 of 6
70 2.1 per gameYellow cards70 2.1 per game
7Red cards3
4-2-3-1 34×Usual shape3-4-2-1 30×

Flamengo at home · Atletico Paranaense away

17Played17
13W 3D 1LRecord6W 4D 7L
35–13Goals for – against23–25
8 of 17Clean sheets3 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Flamengo 34, Atletico Paranaense 34.

Flamengo scored 13711131215
Atletico Paranaense conceded 7982611

Flamengo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Atletico Paranaense have let in 11 there.

Atletico Paranaense scored 13678512
Flamengo conceded 334649

Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (13 goals); Flamengo have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Flamengo

Atletico Paranaense

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.