Regular Season - 12 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Leeds vs Coventry Premier League prediction

Elland Road, Leeds

Our model says: Leeds 1–0 Coventry

The model makes it 50% Leeds, 27% draw, 23% Coventry — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Leeds 1.72, Coventry 1.00.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.

Edge to Leeds: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Leeds's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Coventry's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.

Key facts

Leeds are 9th on 14 points from 10 games; Coventry are 17th on 9 points from 10 games — Premier League.
Leeds have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Tottenham.
Coventry have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Everton.
Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 February 2025, ended Coventry 0–2 Leeds.

More Premier League predictions

All Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Leeds vs Coventry

52%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Leeds win Draw Coventry win

1–112%
1–011%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
1–26%

Scores read Leeds first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Leeds at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Leeds vs Coventry

Leeds

Premier League

W1-0Tottenham7 November 2026
L0-2away to Bournemouth31 October 2026
D0-0away to Sunderland25 October 2026
D1-1Manchester United18 October 2026
L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026

Coventry

Premier League

L1-3away to Everton6 November 2026
W3-1Sunderland31 October 2026
L0-1Fulham24 October 2026
L1-3away to Tottenham19 October 2026
W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026

What these results say

Leeds failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Leeds had two goals or fewer.
Coventry conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Coventry scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Coventry had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	10	8	+2	14
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	10	19	-9	9

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Leeds

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today

Win 3%

Draw 5%

Defeat 6%

Coventry

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today

Win 41%

Draw 52%

Defeat 55%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Coventry vs Leeds

Coventry and Leeds have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.

The record

Leeds won the last one 2–0 on 5 Feb 2025.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Coventry	2	2	2	6	9
Leeds	2	2	2	9	6

Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

5 Feb 2025
ChampionshipCoventry 0–2 Leeds
28 Sep 2024
ChampionshipLeeds 3–0 Coventry
6 Apr 2024
ChampionshipCoventry 2–1 Leeds
16 Dec 2023
ChampionshipLeeds 1–1 Coventry
14 Feb 2012
ChampionshipCoventry 2–1 Leeds
18 Oct 2011
ChampionshipLeeds 1–1 Coventry

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Coventry's attack rates 4% above Leeds', and Leeds concede 36% fewer than Coventry. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Coventry	0.93	1.21
Leeds	0.89	0.78

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Leeds and Coventry

Leeds

GoalsAssists

D. Calvert-Lewin31

Coventry

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Leeds Coventry

0.89 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.93

0.78 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.21

1.72 Model expected goals (this match) 1.00

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Leeds the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Leeds against 1.00 for Coventry. Leeds's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.21 for Coventry.

How the model reaches 50% for Leeds to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Leeds to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Leeds's ratings add 4 points and Coventry's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 50%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage41%+4
Both sides at this match's level40%−1
Leeds's ratings44%+4
Coventry's ratings50%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

LeedsModelCoventry

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

76%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

51%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

10%

1 of 10 games

29%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

52%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

LeedsCoventry

10Matches10

3W 5D 2LRecord3W 0D 7L

10 1.0 per gameGoals scored10 1.0 per game

8 0.8 per gameGoals conceded19 1.9 per game

4 of 10Clean sheets1 of 10

3 of 10Failed to score5 of 10

–Penalties scored1 of 1

20 2.0 per gameYellow cards11 1.1 per game

0Red cards1

3-4-2-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Leeds at home · Coventry away

5Played5

2W 3D 0LRecord1W 0D 4L

7–3Goals for – against3–10

2 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

LeedsCoventry

Leeds are 9th after 10 Premier League matches (between 3rd and 8th so far); Coventry are 17th after 10 (between 14th and 20th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Leeds 10, Coventry 10.

Leeds scored 102303

Coventry conceded 221445

Coventry scored 111502

Leeds conceded 004031

Coventry score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Leeds have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Leeds

at Manchester City2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
vs Ipswich5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 47%
at Liverpool12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
vs Fulham19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 42%

Coventry

vs Ipswich1 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
at Manchester United5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
vs Aston Villa13 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
at Bournemouth19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.