Regular Season - 13 · 28 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Torino vs Lazio Serie A prediction

Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin

Our model says: Torino 0–1 Lazio

The model makes it 25% Torino, 27% draw, 48% Lazio — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Torino 1.05, Lazio 1.66.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.

Edge to Lazio: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Torino's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Lazio's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.

Key facts

Torino are 11th on 14 points from 11 games; Lazio are top on 29 points from 11 games — Serie A.
Torino are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lecce.
Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Napoli.
Last 6 meetings: Lazio 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Torino 2–0 Lazio.

More Serie A predictions

All Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Torino vs Lazio

53%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Torino win Draw Lazio win

1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
0–07%
1–06%
2–16%

Scores read Torino first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Lazio at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Torino vs Lazio

Torino

Serie A

D1-1Lecce7 November 2026
L0-2away to Frosinone1 November 2026
L1-3Como27 October 2026
W3-2Monza23 October 2026
W3-0away to Parma19 October 2026

Lazio

Serie A

D1-1away to Napoli8 November 2026
W2-1Cagliari1 November 2026
W6-2away to Sassuolo27 October 2026
W2-1Parma24 October 2026
W3-0away to Juventus18 October 2026

What these results say

Torino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Torino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	15	17	-2	14
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	25	9	+16	29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Torino

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today

Win 4%

Draw 7%

Defeat 8%

Lazio

Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today

Win 66%

Draw 58%

Defeat 52%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lazio vs Torino

Lazio and Torino have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lazio has won 3 of them to Torino's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

Torino won the last one 2–0 on 1 Mar 2026.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Lazio	3	2	1	11	8
Torino	1	2	3	8	11

Between them these 6 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 3.17 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

1 Mar 2026
Serie ATorino 2–0 Lazio
4 Oct 2025
Serie ALazio 3–3 Torino
31 Mar 2025
Serie ALazio 1–1 Torino
29 Sep 2024
Serie ATorino 2–3 Lazio
22 Feb 2024
Serie ATorino 0–2 Lazio
27 Sep 2023
Serie ALazio 2–0 Torino

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Lazio's attack rates 28% above Torino's, and Lazio concede 26% fewer than Torino. That gives Lazio the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Lazio	1.22	0.78
Torino	0.95	1.06

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Torino and Lazio

Torino

GoalsAssists

C. Adams40

Lazio

GoalsAssists

T. Noslin44
G. Isaksen41
D. Frattesi40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Torino a 0% chance of the title and Lazio 7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Torino Lazio

0.95 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.22

1.06 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.78

1.05 Model expected goals (this match) 1.66

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Torino against 1.66 for Lazio. Torino's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.78 for Lazio.

Torino carry a model rating of 6.8 against 7.07 for Lazio.

How the model reaches 48% for Lazio to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lazio to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Torino's ratings add 7 points and Lazio's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 48%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage34%−2
Torino's ratings41%+7
Lazio's ratings48%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

TorinoModelLazio

Over 1.5 goals

100%

10 of 10 games

76%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

51%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

29%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

53%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

TorinoLazio

11Matches11

4W 2D 5LRecord9W 2D 0L

15 1.4 per gameGoals scored25 2.3 per game

17 1.5 per gameGoals conceded9 0.8 per game

1 of 11Clean sheets4 of 11

2 of 11Failed to score0 of 11

–Penalties scored1 of 3

11 1.0 per gameYellow cards17 1.5 per game

3-5-2 4×Usual shape4-3-3 11×

Torino at home · Lazio away

6Played6

2W 1D 3LRecord5W 1D 0L

8–11Goals for – against15–4

0 of 6Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

TorinoLazio

Torino are 11th after 11 Serie A matches (between 7th and 16th so far); Lazio are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Torino 11, Lazio 11.

Torino scored 123064

Lazio conceded 011321

Torino score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Lazio have let in 2 there.

Lazio scored 543734

Torino conceded 103424

Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Torino have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Torino

at Genoa6 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
at Inter13 Dec · Serie Awin 13%
vs Cagliari20 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
vs Venezia2 Jan · Serie Awin 46%

Lazio

vs Atalanta6 Dec · Serie Awin 45%
vs AS Roma13 Dec · Serie Awin 27%
at Frosinone18 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
at Fiorentina2 Jan · Serie Awin 43%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.