Lyon
vs
Monaco
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lyon 2–1 Monaco
The model makes it 39% Lyon, 28% draw, 33% Monaco — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lyon 1.47, Monaco 1.31.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,325 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Lyon's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Monaco's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Lyon are 5th on 17 points from 10 games; Monaco are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Lyon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Stade Brestois 29.
- Monaco have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Le Mans.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Lyon 1–2 Monaco.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lyon vs Monaco
Has the model earned this number?
Lyon at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lyon vs Monaco
Lyon
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to Stade Brestois 298 November 2026
- W2-0Angers1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Paris Saint Germain26 October 2026
- W2-1Nice18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026
Monaco
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to Le Mans8 November 2026
- L1-3away to Paris FC1 November 2026
- D1-1Lille25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lorient18 October 2026
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
What these results say
- Lyon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monaco did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Monaco conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Monaco
Lyon and Monaco have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Monaco won the last one 2–1 on 22 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Monaco | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Lyon 1–2 Monaco - 3 Jan 2026
Ligue 1Monaco 1–3 Lyon - 10 May 2025
Ligue 1Monaco 2–0 Lyon - 24 Aug 2024
Ligue 1Lyon 0–2 Monaco - 28 Apr 2024
Ligue 1Lyon 3–2 Monaco - 15 Dec 2023
Ligue 1Monaco 0–1 Lyon
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Monaco's attack rates 18% above Lyon's, and Lyon concede 8% fewer than Monaco. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Lyon and Monaco
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah41
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lyon a 0.6% chance of the title and Monaco 1.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Lyon against 1.31 for Monaco. Lyon's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.93 for Monaco.
How the model reaches 39% for Lyon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lyon to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Lyon's ratings take away 2 points and Monaco's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Lyon's ratings40%−2
- Monaco's ratings39%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lyon at home · Monaco away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LyonMonaco
Lyon are 5th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Monaco are 7th after 10 (between 1st and 6th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lyon 10, Monaco 10.
Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Monaco have let in 2 there.
Monaco score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Lyon have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lyon
- at Estac Troyes6 Dec · Ligue 1win 46%
- vs Union St. Gilloise10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
- vs Marseille13 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%
Monaco
- vs Angers5 Dec · Ligue 1win 67%
- at Brighton10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 16%
- at Rennes13 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.