Jagiellonia
vs
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Jagiellonia 2–1 Radomiak Radom
The model makes it 55% Jagiellonia, 24% draw, 21% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 2.07, Radomiak Radom 1.09.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Jagiellonia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Jagiellonia's rating is built from 47 Ekstraklasa matches and Radomiak Radom's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Jagiellonia are 9th on 21 points from 13 games; Radomiak Radom are 14th on 14 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Jagiellonia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to GKS Katowice.
- Radomiak Radom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Korona Kielce.
- Last 6 meetings: Jagiellonia 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Jagiellonia 1–1 Radomiak Radom.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom
Has the model earned this number?
Jagiellonia at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa
- W1-0GKS Katowice8 November 2026
- W3-1away to Wieczysta Kraków31 October 2026
- W1-0Wisla Plock25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin18 October 2026
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce7 November 2026
- W3-1Slask Wroclaw2 November 2026
- L3-4away to Pogon Szczecin24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wisla Plock19 October 2026
- L2-3Motor Lublin12 October 2026
What these results say
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radomiak Radom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radomiak Radom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 21 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom
- 22 February 2026Jagiellonia 1–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 17 August 2025Radomiak Radom 1–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 2 February 2025Jagiellonia 5–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 27 July 2024Radomiak Radom 2–3 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 16 March 2024Radomiak Radom 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 17 September 2023Jagiellonia 3–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom
Jagiellonia
GoalsAssists
- N. Prelec42
Radomiak Radom
GoalsAssists
- J. Grzesik53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jagiellonia a 0.6% chance of the title and Radomiak Radom 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 1.09 for Radomiak Radom. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.53 for Radomiak Radom.
How the model reaches 55% for Jagiellonia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Jagiellonia to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Jagiellonia's ratings add 5 points and Radomiak Radom's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Jagiellonia's ratings49%+5
- Radomiak Radom's ratings55%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Jagiellonia at home · Radomiak Radom away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
JagielloniaRadomiak Radom
Jagiellonia are 9th after 13 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 12th so far); Radomiak Radom are 14th after 14 (between 1st and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Jagiellonia 13, Radomiak Radom 14.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Radomiak Radom have let in 2 there.
Radomiak Radom score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Jagiellonia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jagiellonia
- at Piast Gliwice6 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Crystal Palace10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- at Korona Kielce12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 37%
Radomiak Radom
- vs Raków Częstochowa6 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- at Wieczysta Kraków12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs GKS Katowice30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- at Gornik Zabrze6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.