2. Bundesliga

1. Hertha BSC — 31 points from 11 played (10 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost), 25 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +16. Form, oldest first: W D W W W.
2. 1. FC Nürnberg — 24 points from 11 played (7 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 26 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference +13. Form, oldest first: D D L W W.
3. 1. FC Kaiserslautern — 21 points from 11 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 10 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D W W L W.
4. 1. FC Magdeburg — 20 points from 11 played (6 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 25 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +11. Form, oldest first: W L W D W.
5. VfL Wolfsburg — 19 points from 11 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 26 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: D W D W L.
6. Arminia Bielefeld — 17 points from 11 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 18 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W W L W W.
7. 1. FC Heidenheim — 16 points from 11 played (4 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 19 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D L D L D.
8. VfL Bochum — 14 points from 11 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 11 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L L D W W.
9. FC St. Pauli — 12 points from 11 played (2 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost), 13 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: W D D L L.
10. SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 12 points from 11 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 13 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L W L W L.
11. Hannover 96 — 12 points from 11 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 12 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L D L W D.
12. Energie Cottbus — 11 points from 11 played (2 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 18 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L D D L D.
13. Eintracht Braunschweig — 11 points from 11 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 16 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: W L W L D.
14. VfL Osnabrück — 11 points from 11 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 14 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D L W L L.
15. Dynamo Dresden — 11 points from 11 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 15 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: D W L L W.
16. Karlsruher SC — 11 points from 11 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 15 scored, 24 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: L W L W L.
17. SV Darmstadt 98 — 9 points from 11 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 9 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: W L D D L.
18. Holstein Kiel — 8 points from 11 played (1 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost), 11 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L D W L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 10 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• 1. FC Heidenheim — bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 6.2%.
• 1. FC Nürnberg — chance of finishing top down 0.1, to 16.4%.
• Eintracht Braunschweig — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 32.2%.
• FC St. Pauli — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 19.1%.
• Holstein Kiel — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 30.7%.

Season projection

Every one of the 207 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Hertha BSC — projected to finish on 73.3 points, from 31 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 64.7%, finishes top two 84%, bottom two 0%.
2. 1. FC Nürnberg — projected to finish on 64.1 points, from 24 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 16.4% (down 0.1), finishes top two 46%, bottom two 0%.
3. VfL Wolfsburg — projected to finish on 61.2 points, from 19 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 9.8% (up 0.1), finishes top two 30.1%, bottom two 0%.
4. 1. FC Magdeburg — projected to finish on 57.9 points, from 20 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.2%, finishes top two 18.9%, bottom two 0.1%.
5. 1. FC Kaiserslautern — projected to finish on 57.2 points, from 21 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.6%, finishes top two 12.5%, bottom two 0%.
6. Arminia Bielefeld — projected to finish on 51.5 points, from 17 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1%, finishes top two 5.1%, bottom two 0.7%.
7. 1. FC Heidenheim — projected to finish on 47.1 points, from 16 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top two 1.5%, bottom two 2.9%.
8. VfL Bochum — projected to finish on 43.4 points, from 14 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.2%, bottom two 5.6%.
9. Hannover 96 — projected to finish on 43 points, from 12 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.3%, bottom two 8.5%.
10. Dynamo Dresden — projected to finish on 41.8 points, from 11 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.3%, bottom two 11.3%.
11. Energie Cottbus — projected to finish on 41.5 points, from 11 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.2%, bottom two 11.4%.
12. FC St. Pauli — projected to finish on 41.1 points, from 12 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.2%, bottom two 11.8%.
13. SpVgg Greuther Fürth — projected to finish on 39.7 points, from 12 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.2%, bottom two 15.3%.
14. VfL Osnabrück — projected to finish on 39.3 points, from 11 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.2%, bottom two 17.5%.
15. Eintracht Braunschweig — projected to finish on 37.7 points, from 11 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.1%, bottom two 21.7%.
16. Holstein Kiel — projected to finish on 37.6 points, from 8 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.1%, bottom two 20.8%.
17. Karlsruher SC — projected to finish on 35.7 points, from 11 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom two 30.7%.
18. SV Darmstadt 98 — projected to finish on 33.4 points, from 9 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom two 41.9%.

Top scorers

1. M. Zoma (1. FC Nürnberg) — 7 goals.
2. J. Grodowski (Arminia Bielefeld) — 7 goals, 2 assists.
3. F. Klaus (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
4. P. Scobel (1. FC Nürnberg) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
5. E. Iyoha (1. FC Magdeburg) — 6 goals.
6. M. Żukowski (1. FC Magdeburg) — 6 goals.
7. J. Butler (Energie Cottbus) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
8. O. Adewumi (Hertha BSC) — 5 goals.
9. P. Hofmann (VfL Bochum) — 5 goals.
10. Abdoulie Ceesay (FC St. Pauli) — 5 goals.
11. F. Reese (VfL Wolfsburg) — 5 goals, 7 assists.
12. P. Harres (Holstein Kiel) — 5 goals, 3 assists.
13. R. Glatzel (VfL Wolfsburg) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
14. J. Brekalo (Hertha BSC) — 5 goals, 5 assists.
15. T. Ciğerci (Energie Cottbus) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
16. A. Bernhardsson (VfL Wolfsburg) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
17. Jan Urbich (Eintracht Braunschweig) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
18. M. Damar (VfL Wolfsburg) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
19. S. Grønning (Hertha BSC) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
20. R. Meißner (VfL Osnabrück) — 4 goals, 1 assist.