Bundesliga (Germany)

1. Bayern München — 21 points from 9 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost), 29 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +20. Form, oldest first: D W W D W.
2. Borussia Dortmund — 21 points from 9 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost), 16 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: D D W D W.
3. SC Freiburg — 19 points from 9 played (6 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 20 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W L L W W.
4. RB Leipzig — 18 points from 9 played (6 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost), 27 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference +14. Form, oldest first: W L W W W.
5. Bayer Leverkusen — 16 points from 9 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 20 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W W L L W.
6. Werder Bremen — 15 points from 9 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 17 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D D W W L.
7. SV Elversberg — 13 points from 9 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 17 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L W L W L.
8. VfB Stuttgart — 12 points from 9 played (4 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost), 15 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L L W W.
9. 1899 Hoffenheim — 12 points from 9 played (4 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost), 16 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L W W L W.
10. Eintracht Frankfurt — 12 points from 9 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L W L W D.
11. Hamburger SV — 12 points from 9 played (4 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost), 10 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: W W L L W.
12. FSV Mainz 05 — 10 points from 9 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 18 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L W L L L.
13. SC Paderborn 07 — 10 points from 9 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 8 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L D W D D.
14. FC Augsburg — 9 points from 9 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 20 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: D L D L L.
15. 1. FC Köln — 9 points from 9 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 10 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: W L D D L.
16. Union Berlin — 7 points from 9 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 7 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -14. Form, oldest first: W D D D L.
17. FC Schalke 04 — 6 points from 9 played (1 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 5 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.
18. Borussia Mönchengladbach — 4 points from 9 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost), 12 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -13. Form, oldest first: L L W D L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 14 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• FC Schalke 04 — bottom-three risk up 1.7, to 49.6%.
• Borussia Mönchengladbach — bottom-three risk down 0.3, to 67.4%.
• Hamburger SV — bottom-three risk down 0.3, to 21.7%.
• 1. FC Köln — bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 42.2%.
• Union Berlin — bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 52.8%.

Season projection

Every one of the 225 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Bayern München — projected to finish on 80.3 points, from 21 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 73.4% (up 0.1), finishes top four 99.4%, bottom two 0%.
2. Borussia Dortmund — projected to finish on 71.8 points, from 21 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 17.4% (up 0.1), finishes top four 90%, bottom two 0%.
3. RB Leipzig — projected to finish on 65.6 points, from 18 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.3% (down 0.1), finishes top four 73.5%, bottom two 0%.
4. SC Freiburg — projected to finish on 62.1 points, from 19 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.3%, finishes top four 55.8%, bottom two 0%.
5. Bayer Leverkusen — projected to finish on 59.7 points, from 16 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.4% (down 0.1), finishes top four 43%, bottom two 0%.
6. VfB Stuttgart — projected to finish on 52.5 points, from 12 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 17%, bottom two 0.7%.
7. Werder Bremen — projected to finish on 48 points, from 15 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 5.7%, bottom two 1%.
8. SV Elversberg — projected to finish on 47.7 points, from 13 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 5.3%, bottom two 1.7%.
9. Eintracht Frankfurt — projected to finish on 45.9 points, from 12 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 4.5%, bottom two 1.6%.
10. 1899 Hoffenheim — projected to finish on 43.5 points, from 12 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 2.2%, bottom two 3.4%.
11. FC Augsburg — projected to finish on 42.7 points, from 9 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 2%, bottom two 5.1%.
12. FSV Mainz 05 — projected to finish on 40.1 points, from 10 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 1.2%, bottom two 8.3%.
13. Hamburger SV — projected to finish on 37.5 points, from 12 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom two 10.9%.
14. SC Paderborn 07 — projected to finish on 36.3 points, from 10 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.3%, bottom two 14.6%.
15. 1. FC Köln — projected to finish on 32.7 points, from 9 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom two 27.6%.
16. FC Schalke 04 — projected to finish on 31.1 points, from 6 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom two 34%.
17. Union Berlin — projected to finish on 30.9 points, from 7 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom two 37.9%.
18. Borussia Mönchengladbach — projected to finish on 27.9 points, from 4 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom two 53.4%.

Top scorers

1. N. Füllkrug (Werder Bremen) — 9 goals.
2. P. Schick (Bayer Leverkusen) — 8 goals, 2 assists.
3. M. Olise (Bayern München) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
4. Y. Ebnoutalib (Eintracht Frankfurt) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
5. P. Tietz (FSV Mainz 05) — 6 goals.
6. C. Nkunku (RB Leipzig) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
7. J. Burkardt (Eintracht Frankfurt) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
8. E. Demirović (VfB Stuttgart) — 5 goals.
9. Y. Suzuki (SC Freiburg) — 5 goals.
10. Rômulo (RB Leipzig) — 5 goals.
11. M. Gregoritsch (FC Augsburg) — 5 goals.
12. M. Krattenmacher (SV Elversberg) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
13. I. Matanović (SC Freiburg) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
14. L. Díaz (Bayern München) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
15. F. Nmecha (Borussia Dortmund) — 4 goals.
16. H. Kane (Bayern München) — 4 goals, 8 assists.
17. A. Nusa (RB Leipzig) — 4 goals, 7 assists.
18. A. Caci (FSV Mainz 05) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
19. I. Maza (Bayer Leverkusen) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
20. T. Gomis (RB Leipzig) — 3 goals, 2 assists.