Ligue 1 (France)

1. Paris Saint Germain — 23 points from 10 played (7 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 22 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +12. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
2. Lille — 21 points from 10 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: W D D W W.
3. Paris FC — 20 points from 10 played (6 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 17 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: L W L W W.
4. Marseille — 18 points from 10 played (6 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost), 22 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
5. Lyon — 17 points from 10 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: L W L W L.
6. Nice — 17 points from 10 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W L W W W.
7. Monaco — 16 points from 10 played (4 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 13 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D L D L D.
8. Rennes — 16 points from 10 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 21 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L W L L.
9. Stade Brestois 29 — 15 points from 10 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 18 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W D L W W.
10. Lorient — 15 points from 10 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 9 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W W D L W.
11. Lens — 13 points from 10 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 17 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W W W L L.
12. Toulouse — 13 points from 10 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: D W D L W.
13. Strasbourg — 10 points from 10 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 18 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: L L L W L.
14. Auxerre — 10 points from 10 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 13 scored, 24 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: L W D L L.
15. Le Mans — 8 points from 10 played (1 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 12 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L L D L D.
16. Angers — 8 points from 10 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 9 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.
17. Estac Troyes — 8 points from 10 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 7 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L L D W L.
18. Le Havre — 2 points from 10 played (0 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost), 9 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference -13. Form, oldest first: L L L L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped.

• Le Mans — bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 40.8%.
• Angers — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 74.6%.
• Auxerre — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 38.9%.
• Lens — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 0.4%.
• Lille — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 10.4%.

Season projection

Every one of the 216 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Paris Saint Germain — projected to finish on 76.1 points, from 23 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 72.9%, finishes top three 95.3%, bottom two 0%.
2. Lille — projected to finish on 64.8 points, from 21 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 10.4% (up 0.1), finishes top three 57.3%, bottom two 0%.
3. Paris FC — projected to finish on 63.6 points, from 20 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 8.9%, finishes top three 52.4%, bottom two 0%.
4. Marseille — projected to finish on 60.2 points, from 18 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.6%, finishes top three 36.5%, bottom two 0%.
5. Monaco — projected to finish on 56.6 points, from 16 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.5%, finishes top three 19.9%, bottom two 0%.
6. Lyon — projected to finish on 54.3 points, from 17 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.6%, finishes top three 12.4%, bottom two 0%.
7. Lens — projected to finish on 51.4 points, from 13 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.4% (up 0.1), finishes top three 7.2%, bottom two 0.2%.
8. Rennes — projected to finish on 51.1 points, from 16 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top three 7.8%, bottom two 0.1%.
9. Nice — projected to finish on 48.4 points, from 17 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top three 3.5%, bottom two 0.4%.
10. Stade Brestois 29 — projected to finish on 48 points, from 15 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top three 4.4%, bottom two 0.6%.
11. Toulouse — projected to finish on 45.7 points, from 13 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top three 1.5%, bottom two 0.6%.
12. Lorient — projected to finish on 45.6 points, from 15 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 1.3%, bottom two 0.8%.
13. Strasbourg — projected to finish on 43.3 points, from 10 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.6%, bottom two 2.6%.
14. Auxerre — projected to finish on 32.5 points, from 10 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0%, bottom two 19.3%.
15. Le Mans — projected to finish on 31.8 points, from 8 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0%, bottom two 23.7%.
16. Estac Troyes — projected to finish on 30.5 points, from 8 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0%, bottom two 27.6%.
17. Angers — projected to finish on 26 points, from 8 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0%, bottom two 56.3%.
18. Le Havre — projected to finish on 23.2 points, from 2 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0%, bottom two 67.8%.

Top scorers

1. L. Sinayoko (Paris FC) — 9 goals, 5 assists.
2. A. Gouiri (Marseille) — 7 goals, 3 assists.
3. E. Lepaul (Rennes) — 7 goals.
4. C. Archer (Auxerre) — 6 goals.
5. E. Wahi (Nice) — 6 goals, 2 assists.
6. L. Ajorque (Stade Brestois 29) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
7. B. Dia (Rennes) — 5 goals.
8. C. Tengstedt (Toulouse) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
9. F. Thauvin (Lens) — 5 goals, 7 assists.
10. Gessime Yassine (Strasbourg) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
11. Ferran Torres (Paris Saint Germain) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
12. S. Szymański (Rennes) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
13. E. Nuamah (Lyon) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
14. Paris Josua Brunner (Monaco) — 4 goals.
15. K. Doumbia (Stade Brestois 29) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
16. L. Mafouta (Le Mans) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
17. J. Maja (Le Havre) — 4 goals.
18. A. Hakimi (Paris Saint Germain) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
19. A. Bourabaa (Le Mans) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
20. A. Harit (Marseille) — 3 goals, 1 assist.