Aarhus vs Sonderjyske Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 3-0 Sonderjyske.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Aarhus, 23% draw, 25% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Danish Superliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aarhus at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. HansenG
- 14T. MølgaardD
- 5F. TingagerD
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 29R. CarstensenM
- 4M. KnudsenM
- 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 31T. BechM
- 23M. AndersonM
- 13J. SerraF
- 28J. BogereF
- 26J. AndersenD
- 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
- 19E. KahlD
- 18C. McCowattM
- 25C. RöslerD
- 7M. SolbakkenM
- 27S. TchamcheF
- 8S. JørgensenM
- 24N. ShintonG
- 3A. MunksgaardD
- 12M. SoulasD
- 25B. BjarnasonD
- 19P. KristensenD
- 17A. HoegM
- 10M. OlesenM
- 31I. SeydiM
- 8M. HaidaraM
- 7S. EminiM
- 11O. De RosarioF
- 14T. HaltvikM
- 30G. WagnerD
- 1N. FløG
- 34Elias Hjort- PedersenM
- 9M. HoppeF
- 21S. VelkovD
- 22A. OggesenM
- 26B. TambedouF
- 33J. ChristensenM
Form going into Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
Aarhus
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
- L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
Sonderjyske
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Randers FC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby13 September 2026
- L2-5AC Horsens6 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Copenhagen31 August 2026
- L0-3FC Nordsjaelland23 August 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aarhus | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
- 3 May 2026Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 15 March 2026Sonderjyske 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 9 November 2025Aarhus 2–3 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 29 October 2025Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskeDBU Pokalen
- 20 July 2025Sonderjyske 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and Sonderjyske
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra50
Sonderjyske
GoalsAssists
- M. Haidara50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aarhus beat Sonderjyske 3–0. The model had made a win for Aarhus its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kristian Arnstad 9' for Aarhus, Janni Serra 15' for Aarhus, Frederik Tingager 38' for Aarhus. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.48.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aarhus a 36.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.6% after a win, 41.3% after a draw, 49.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.6%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.
For Sonderjyske the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 71.6% going in: 56.8% after a win, 70.4% after a draw, 78.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.9%, 7.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Aarhus v Sonderjyske has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 48% / 25% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 23% / 25%: the biggest move is Aarhus's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Aarhus win52%▲ +4
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Sonderjyske win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.