America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin Primera A prediction & result
Final score: America de Cali 1-2 Independiente Medellin.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% America de Cali, 26% draw, 20% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
America de Cali at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1JeanG
- 13M. CastilloD
- 24C. TovarD
- 3D. RoseroD
- 14M. MinaD
- 15R. CarrascalM
- 5J. EscobarM
- 23L. QuiñonesM
- 10Y. GuzmánM
- 88T. PalaciosM
- 21T. ÁngelF
- 17J. LucumíF
- 36Jhordy CamachoF
- 30O. BertelD
- 29C. AmuM
- 12J. MontoyaG
- 18Y. QuinteroM
- 2M. TorresD
- 77E. TortoleroM
- 9J. ValenciaF
- 25E. ChauxG
- 26E. MenaD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 5J. VarelaD
- 18F. FabraD
- 30H. PalaciosM
- 16H. LoboaM
- 6D. MorenoM
- 11Y. GonzálezM
- 10D. CatañoF
- 32C. LucumiF
- 19A. SimarraD
- 24N. ErazoM
- 1S. IchazoG
- 34K. KlingerM
- 90E. LarrosaF
- 4K. MantillaD
- 20J. MontañoF
- 31D. MorenoM
- 14B. PerlazaM
Form going into America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
Independiente Medellin
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Santa Fe6 October 2026
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Medellin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Independiente Medellin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 15 | +16 | 36 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
- 30 March 2026Independiente Medellin 2–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 2 December 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 27 November 2025America de Cali 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 14 November 2025Independiente Medellin 3–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 20 June 2025America de Cali 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán206
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente Medellin won 2–1 at America de Cali. The model had leaned towards a win for America de Cali at 54% and given a win for Independiente Medellin 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Quiñones 7' for America de Cali, Luis Escorcia 24' for Independiente Medellin, Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez 84' for Independiente Medellin. Sent off: Dany Rosero (America de Cali) 45+2'. On expected goals it finished 0.64–0.96.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave America de Cali a 39.8% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 48.2% after a win, 29.8% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.7%, 17.1 points lower than before the match.
For Independiente Medellin the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.3% going in: 21.3% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 5.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 12 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on America de Cali v Independiente Medellin has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is America de Cali's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- America de Cali win54%▲ +7
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Independiente Medellin win20%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.