Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Novorizontino 5-1 Ponte Preta.
Before kick-off the model made it 86% Novorizontino, 10% draw, 4% Ponte Preta — fair odds of 1.16, 10.00 and 25.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Novorizontino at 86%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 93JordiG
- 2MadsonD
- 3CarlinhosD
- 4PatrickD
- 5SanderD
- 50JuninhoM
- 6Luis OyamaM
- 7Ronald BarcellosM
- 10RomuloM
- 30Nicolas CarecaM
- 9CarlãoF
- 24J. LoraD
- 40Jardiel Maciel Libertino da SilvaM
- 66MaykonD
- 8C. OrtízF
- 15TavinhoF
- 22A. AlvariñoM
- 27Diego MathiasF
- 19Diego GaloM
- 14Eduardo BrockD
- 30ViniciusG
- 23S. PalaciosD
- 15Gabriel Caran de OliveiraD
- 44Gustavo AlmeidaD
- 6JuanM
- 5Rodrigo SouzaM
- 22DenisM
- 14Danilo BarcelosM
- 18David da HoraM
- 19Jonathan CafúM
- 9BrandãoF
- 20Thevyn Dos Anjos SouzaF
- 1Guilherme VianaG
- 7Emanuell Silva FerreiraF
- 21Vitor Ribeiro FernandesF
- 2Ryan Henrique Pereira AndradeM
- 35Gustavo LopesM
- 32Felipe Di Mauro Reis CoutinhoD
- 16KarlM
- 17Nicolas SilvaM
Form going into Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife8 October 2026
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
Ponte Preta
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Juventude7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cuiaba3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 38 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 67 | 32 | +35 | 73 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 38 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 81 | -60 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
- 22 June 2026Ponte Preta 0–2 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 15 January 2025Novorizontino 0–1 Ponte PretaPaulista - A1
- 1 October 2024Novorizontino 2–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 15 June 2024Ponte Preta 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 3 March 2024Ponte Preta 1–1 NovorizontinoPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Novorizontino and Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson165
- Romulo119
- Matheus Bianqui70
Ponte Preta
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Novorizontino beat Ponte Preta 5–1. The model had made a win for Novorizontino its most likely outcome, at 86%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Ronald Barcellos Arantes 11' for Novorizontino, Juninho 25' for Novorizontino, Danilo 45' for Ponte Preta, Romulo Azevedo Simão (penalty) 45+8' for Novorizontino, Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito 81' for Novorizontino, Eduardo Brock 90' for Novorizontino. Sent off: Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas (Novorizontino) 43', Gustavo Felipe Almeida (Ponte Preta) 62', Denis (Ponte Preta) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.73–1.19.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Novorizontino a 33.9% chance to win the league: 35.1% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 14.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Novorizontino v Ponte Preta has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 77% / 15% / 8% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 86% / 10% / 4%: the biggest move is Novorizontino's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Novorizontino win86%▲ +9
- Draw10%▼ −5
- Ponte Preta win4%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.