Ümraniyespor
vs
Manisa F.K.
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Ümraniyespor 1–0 Manisa F.K.
The model makes it 48% Ümraniyespor, 28% draw, 24% Manisa F.K. — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ümraniyespor 1.58, Manisa F.K. 0.96.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Ümraniyespor's rating is built from 51 TFF 1. Lig matches and Manisa F.K.'s from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Ümraniyespor are 12th on 17 points from 13 games; Manisa F.K. are 17th on 13 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Ümraniyespor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kayserispor.
- Manisa F.K. have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Keçiörengücü.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 January 2026, ended Manisa F.K. 1–0 Ümraniyespor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K.
Has the model earned this number?
Ümraniyespor at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K.
Ümraniyespor
1. Lig
- W2-1Kayserispor8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Bodrum FK1 November 2026
- W4-0Sivasspor24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vanspor FK18 October 2026
- D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026
Manisa F.K.
1. Lig
- L0-1away to Keçiörengücü7 November 2026
- W2-1Batman Petrolspor31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Mardin 196926 October 2026
- L3-4Muğlaspor19 October 2026
- D1-1Esenler Erokspor15 October 2026
What these results say
- Ümraniyespor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ümraniyespor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ümraniyespor | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K.
- 12 January 2026Manisa F.K. 1–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 8 August 2025Ümraniyespor 2–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 10 May 2025Ümraniyespor 0–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 13 January 2025Manisa F.K. 0–3 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 11 March 2024Manisa F.K. 3–2 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 22 October 2023Ümraniyespor 3–2 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
Leading scorers: Ümraniyespor and Manisa F.K.
Ümraniyespor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Manisa F.K.
GoalsAssists
- J. Anziani81
- C. Sylla72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ümraniyespor a 0.1% chance of the title and Manisa F.K. 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ümraniyespor the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ümraniyespor against 0.96 for Manisa F.K.. Ümraniyespor's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.77 for Manisa F.K..
How the model reaches 48% for Ümraniyespor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ümraniyespor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Ümraniyespor's ratings add 1 point and Manisa F.K.'s ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Ümraniyespor's ratings44%+1
- Manisa F.K.'s ratings48%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ümraniyespor at home · Manisa F.K. away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Ümraniyespor 13, Manisa F.K. 14.
Ümraniyespor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Manisa F.K. have let in 2 there.
Manisa F.K. score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Ümraniyespor have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ümraniyespor
- at İstanbulspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 41%
- vs Batman Petrolspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 45%
- at Bursaspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 17%
Manisa F.K.
- vs Bandırmaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 42%
- at Antalyaspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 28%
- vs Sarıyer20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 46%
- vs Boluspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.