Al Ahly vs Smouha SC Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Al Ahly 1-0 Smouha SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Al Ahly, 25% draw, 24% Smouha SC — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Ahly at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Ahly vs Smouha SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31O. ShobeirG
- 30M. HanyD
- 6Y. IbrahimD
- 26A. El GazarD
- 36A. KoukaD
- 21A. MahmoudM
- 13M. AteyaM
- 7T. MohamedM
- 25ZizoM
- 17A. BencharkiM
- 9S. BenjdidaF
- 1M. El ShenawyG
- 5H. ReyadD
- 28K. FouadD
- 2Y. MareiD
- 19AfshaM
- 8A. RedaD
- 14H. El ShahatM
- 10M. BakrarF
- 27A. AbdallahF
- 28A. MayhoubG
- 2H. HafezD
- 24M. Ragab
- 4Abdel Rasoul AhmedD
- 3M. DesoukiD
- 15A. SamadouM
- 11M. FaroukM
- 10K. El GhandourM
- 7A. El SisiM
- 8S. Fekri
- 23F. FaridF
- 1H. TaimourG
- 30A. GamalD
- 19M. AdelM
- 17A. El Nadry
- 66K. MohamedM
- 21A. MohamedF
- 9M. HamdiM
- 14MakaronaF
- 45E. NwekeF
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ahly | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 9 | Smouha SC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Ahly and Smouha SC
Al Ahly
GoalsAssists
- Zizo32
- A. Bencharki20
Smouha SC
GoalsAssists
- P. Badji21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Ahly beat Smouha SC 1–0. The model had made a win for Al Ahly its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Y. Ibrahim 87' for Al Ahly. On expected goals it finished 1.61–0.00.