3 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Raków Częstochowa, 29% draw, 34% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Raków Częstochowa at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Raków Częstochowa0%Draw5%Gornik Zabrze95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽J. Antisteassist: R. Janicki
34'
⚽R. Janickiassist: E. Janza
🔁M. Perovicout: J. C. Silva
36'
36'
K. Urbanski
🔁D. G. Debohiout: S. Svarnas
46'
🔁J. Jendrykaout: L. Diaby-Fadiga
46'
🔁O. Abrahamout: K. Struski
52'
🔁V. Kocherginout: A. Basse
61'
F. Tudor
65'
⚽M. Emreli
79'
80'
🔁J. Kubickiout: L. Sadilek
80'
🔁Y. Ikia Dimiout: B. Durdov
84'
🔁P. Bernardoout: B. Donio
84'
🔁J. Antisteout: E. Prekop
89'
🔁M. Khlanout: O. Zmrzly
L. Diaby-Fadiga
90+4'

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa
  • 1K. Trelowski
  • 7F. Tudor
  • 77D. G. Debohi
  • 25B. Racovitan
  • 36M. Perovic
  • 22O. Abraham
  • 10V. Kochergin
  • 17J. Jendryka
  • 11M. Emreli
  • 21T. Pienko
  • 9P. Makuch
Substitutes
  • 71T. Karic
  • 2J. Napieraj
  • 4S. Svarnas
  • 3A. Brorsson
  • 23K. Struski
  • 20J. C. Silva
  • 6O. Repka
  • 88A. Molnar
  • 15O. Kwiatkowski
Coach: Dawid Kroczek
Gornik Zabrze
  • 1P. Schulze
  • 61M. Sacek
  • 26R. Janicki
  • 20Josema
  • 64E. Janza
  • 14J. Kubicki
  • 82K. Urbanski
  • 7Y. Ikia Dimi
  • 8P. Bernardo
  • 33M. Khlan
  • 9J. Antiste
Substitutes
  • 99T. Loska
  • 4P. Bochniewicz
  • 21O. Zmrzly
  • 2P. Warczak
  • 66M. Dietz
  • 3M. Synos
  • 18L. Sadilek
  • 28B. Donio
  • 23S. Liseth
Coach: Michal Gasparik

Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze

Raków Częstochowa

  • L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026

Gornik Zabrze

  • L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Raków Częstochowa81071018-83
1Gornik Zabrze8701168+821

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze

  • 3 September 2026Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 2 May 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaCup
  • 15 March 2026Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 15 September 2025Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 21 February 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 18 August 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze

Raków Częstochowa

  • P. Makuch5 goals
  • M. Emreli3 goals1 assists

Gornik Zabrze

  • Peter4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.