Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Raków Częstochowa, 29% draw, 34% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Raków Częstochowa at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1K. Trelowski
- 7F. Tudor
- 77D. G. Debohi
- 25B. Racovitan
- 36M. Perovic
- 22O. Abraham
- 10V. Kochergin
- 17J. Jendryka
- 11M. Emreli
- 21T. Pienko
- 9P. Makuch
- 71T. Karic
- 2J. Napieraj
- 4S. Svarnas
- 3A. Brorsson
- 23K. Struski
- 20J. C. Silva
- 6O. Repka
- 88A. Molnar
- 15O. Kwiatkowski
- 1P. Schulze
- 61M. Sacek
- 26R. Janicki
- 20Josema
- 64E. Janza
- 14J. Kubicki
- 82K. Urbanski
- 7Y. Ikia Dimi
- 8P. Bernardo
- 33M. Khlan
- 9J. Antiste
- 99T. Loska
- 4P. Bochniewicz
- 21O. Zmrzly
- 2P. Warczak
- 66M. Dietz
- 3M. Synos
- 18L. Sadilek
- 28B. Donio
- 23S. Liseth
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
All competitions we cover
- L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
- L2-3HNK Hajduk Split27 August 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
All competitions we cover
- L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Monaco27 August 2026
- L2-3Monaco20 August 2026
- W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC13 August 2026
What these results say
- Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 12 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze
- 2 May 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaCup
- 15 March 2026Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 15 September 2025Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 21 February 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 18 August 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch81
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gornik Zabrze won 2–1 at Raków Częstochowa. The model had leaned towards a win for Raków Częstochowa at 37% and given a win for Gornik Zabrze 34%. The goals: J. Antiste 6' for Gornik Zabrze, R. Janicki 34' for Gornik Zabrze, M. Emreli 79' for Raków Częstochowa. Sent off: L. Diaby-Fadiga (Raków Częstochowa) 90+4'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.