4 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

New York City FC vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Yankee Stadium, New York
Full time0 – 0

Final score: New York City FC 0-0 Nashville SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% New York City FC, 29% draw, 28% Nashville SC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

New York City FC at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

New York City FC5%Draw92%Nashville SC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Andy Najar
49'
Patrick Yazbek
53'
Hany Mukhtar
66'
🔁P. Yazbekout: M. Corcoran
Kevin O'Toole
68'
🔁J. Sandsout: A. O'Neill
70'
🔁Luighiout: M. Jones
76'
81'
🔁E. Saadout: A. Qasem
81'
🔁C. Espinozaout: S. Mohammed
89'
🔁A. Najarout: D. Lovitz
89'
🔁E. Tagsethout: B. Acosta
Malachi Jones
90'
90+2'
Bryan Acosta

Match stats — New York City FC vs Nashville SC

44%Possession56%
6Shots13
1On target2
3Corners3
0.99xG1.61

Goals against chances

New York City FC0 from 0.99 xGless than the chances were worth
Nashville SC0 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New York City FC 4-2-3-1
  • 49M. FreeseG
  • 24T. GrayD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 34Raul GustavoD
  • 22K. O'TooleD
  • 6J. SandsM
  • 8A. PereaM
  • 26A. OjedaM
  • 7N. MercauM
  • 9B. TraoreM
  • 20LuighiF
Substitutes
  • 30T. RomeroG
  • 23M. MurrayD
  • 2N. CavalloD
  • 21A. O'NeillM
  • 27C. FlaxM
  • 35M. IlenicD
  • 32J. ShoreM
  • 88M. JonesF
  • 16A. MartinezF
Coach: Pascal Jansen
Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
  • 99B. SchwakeG
  • 31A. NajarD
  • 4J. PalaciosD
  • 3M. WoledziD
  • 27R. Baker-WhitingD
  • 8P. YazbekM
  • 20E. TagsethM
  • 7C. EspinozaM
  • 10H. MukhtarM
  • 11E. SaadM
  • 9S. SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 1J. WillisG
  • 5J. MaherD
  • 22J. BauerD
  • 2D. LovitzD
  • 6B. AcostaM
  • 16M. CorcoranM
  • 37A. QasemF
  • 14S. MohammedM
  • 19A. MuylM
Coach: Brian Callaghan

Form going into New York City FC vs Nashville SC

New York City FC

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026
  • L2-3Philadelphia Union16 August 2026
  • D1-1Toronto FC31 July 2026

Nashville SC

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0FC Cincinnati30 August 2026
  • W3-2Columbus Crew23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to New York Red Bulls19 August 2026
  • W4-1Inter Miami16 August 2026
  • D2-2away to DC United1 August 2026

What these results say

  • New York City FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Nashville SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Nashville SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Nashville SC won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11New York City FC341012124945+442
1Nashville SC3423837125+4677

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Nashville SC

  • 24 May 2026Nashville SC 2–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 17 August 2025New York City FC 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 May 2025Nashville SC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 6 October 2024New York City FC 3–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 23 June 2024Nashville SC 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 April 2023New York City FC 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New York City FC and Nashville SC

New York City FC

GoalsAssists

  • N. Fernández Mercau166

Nashville SC

GoalsAssists

  • S. Surridge211
  • H. Mukhtar167

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

New York City FC and Nashville SC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.99–1.61.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.