10 October 2026, 14:55 UTC

Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat Pro League prediction & result

Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium
Referee: Faisal Suleiman Al-Balawi, Saudi Arabia
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Al-Ettifaq, 24% draw, 25% Al Khaleej Saihat — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ettifaq at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Ettifaq6%Draw91%Al Khaleej Saihat3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Abdoulaye Kanté
11'
14'
Saleh Al Amri
30'
🔁Miguel Crespo da Silvaout: Fahad Al Rashidi
45'
🔁Mateo Benegasout: Joshua King
45'
🔁Anthony Morisout: Marwan Al-Haidari
57'
Omar Mascarell
65'
🔁Saleh Al Amriout: Musa Barrow
68'
⚽Joshua King (pen)
🔁Moussa Dembéléout: Saud Haroun
74'
🔁Madallah Al-Olayanout: Meshal Al-Aeli
75'
⚽Bersant Celinaassist: Meshal Al-Aeli
76'
🔁Radhi Al Oteibiout: Marzouq Tambakti
78'
80'
🔁Nawaf Al-Sadiout: Thamer Al-Khaibri
🔁Khalid Al-Ghannamout: Yasir Al-Shammari
81'
•Jordan Larsson
87'
Abdullah Al-Khateeb
88'
Saud Haroun
89'
89'
Miguel Crespo da Silva
90+1'
Majed Omar Kanabah

Match stats — Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat

60%Possession40%
23Shots11
9On target4
11Corners3
1.68xG2.69

Goals against chances

Al-Ettifaq1 from 1.68 xGless than the chances were worth
Al Khaleej Saihat1 from 2.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Ettifaq 4-3-3
  • 1M. RodákG
  • 61Radhi Al OtaibiD
  • 5Pedro HenriqueD
  • 70Abdullah KhateebD
  • 33Madallah Al OlayanD
  • 10Álvaro MedránM
  • 42A. KantéM
  • 43B. CelinaM
  • 17J. LarssonF
  • 9M. DembéléF
  • 7Khalid Al GhannamF
Substitutes
  • 13Meshal Al AlaeliD
  • 58Yasir ShammariM
  • 92Turki Ba Al JawshG
  • 71M. GluščevićF
  • 77AbdulelahM
  • 3Abdullah MaduD
  • 26Riyadh SharahiliM
  • 78Marzouq TambaktiD
  • 99Saud HarounF
Coach: Arthur Papas
Al Khaleej Saihat 4-4-2
  • 49A. MorisG
  • 27Fawaz Al SaqourD
  • 4K. KouyatéD
  • 3Mohammed Al KhabraniD
  • 5Pedro RebochoD
  • 18Nawaf Al SaadiM
  • 8Omar MascarellM
  • 12Majed KanabahM
  • 11Saleh Al AmriM
  • 9M. BenegasF
  • 19Miguel CrespoF
Substitutes
  • 7J. KingF
  • 99M. BarrowF
  • 13Ahmad AsiriD
  • 14Ali Al ShaafiD
  • 90Thamer Al KhaibriF
  • 39Saeed Al HamsalD
  • 96Marwan Al HaidariG
  • 17Abdullah Al HafithD
  • 97Sultan Al-DossariM
Coach: José Gomes

Form going into Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Ettifaq

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC11 September 2026
  • D0-0Al-Faisaly FC8 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Abha4 September 2026
  • L0-3Al Diriyah29 August 2026

Al Khaleej Saihat

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Al-Nassr12 September 2026
  • D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
  • L0-3away to NEOM3 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Ettifaq failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Al-Ettifaq125431817+119
9Al Khaleej Saihat123631419-515

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat

  • 9 May 2026Al Khaleej Saihat 0–5 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 12 January 2026Al-Ettifaq 1–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
  • 2 May 2025Al-Ettifaq 2–1 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
  • 7 December 2024Al Khaleej Saihat 1–2 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 15 February 2024Al Khaleej Saihat 0–2 Al-EttifaqPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Ettifaq

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Al Khaleej Saihat

GoalsAssists

  • J. King50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Ettifaq at 51% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Joshua King (penalty) 68' for Al Khaleej Saihat, Bersant Celina 76' for Al-Ettifaq. On expected goals it finished 1.68–2.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Khaleej Saihat a 36.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 25.5% after a win, 37.0% after a draw, 39.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 37.0%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Ettifaq v Al Khaleej Saihat has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 51% / 24% / 25%: the biggest move is Al-Ettifaq's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Al-Ettifaq win51%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Al Khaleej Saihat win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.