10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Zira vs Şamaxı FK Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Zira Stadium, Zira
Referee: F. Hajiyev
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Zira 1-1 Şamaxı FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Zira, 28% draw, 24% Şamaxı FK — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zira at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zira4%Draw93%Şamaxı FK3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Guima
17'
🔁Guimaout: H. Hacyly
51'
53'
⚽A. Shuaibu
55'
A. Bouali
61'
🔁U. Cahangirovout: E. Adilkhanov
⚽A. Mutsinzi
68'
69'
🔁A. Shuaibuout: T. Akhvlediani
69'
🔁O. Mammadovout: O. Tahmazli
🔁A. Seydiyevout: E. Aydin
69'
🔁I. Ibrahimliout: G. Papunashvili
69'
77'
🔁A. Boualiout: H. Ismayilov
87'
E. Rustamov

Form going into Zira vs Şamaxı FK

Zira

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Paide30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Paide23 July 2026

Şamaxı FK

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Zira115421615+119
7Şamaxı FK113531716+114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zira vs Şamaxı FK

  • 7 April 2026Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
  • 13 December 2025Şamaxı FK 2–1 ZiraPremyer Liqa
  • 19 September 2025Zira 2–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
  • 30 March 2025Zira 3–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
  • 24 January 2025Şamaxı FK 1–2 ZiraPremyer Liqa
  • 4 December 2024Zira 3–1 Şamaxı FKCup

The result against the call

Zira and Şamaxı FK drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Zira at 48% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Shuaibu 53' for Şamaxı FK, A. Mutsinzi 68' for Zira.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zira a 41.6% chance to finish in the top four: 46.8% after a win, 38.3% after a draw, 32.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.3%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

For Şamaxı FK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 17.7% going in: 24.9% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.8%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zira v Şamaxı FK has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Zira's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Zira win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Şamaxı FK win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.