10 October 2026, 13:50 UTC

Al-Hazm vs NEOM Pro League prediction & result

Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Ar Rass
Referee: Fareeh Al Jaloud, Saudi Arabia
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Al-Hazm 1-1 NEOM.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Al-Hazm, 27% draw, 45% NEOM — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NEOM at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Hazm3%Draw92%NEOM5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe
17'
⚽Aboubacar·Diakiteassist: Ahmed Al-Nakhli
41'
42'
🔁Amadou Konéout: Khalifah Al-Dawsari
45'
🔁Haroune Camaraout: Saïd Benrahma
45'
🔁Muhanad Al Saadout: Khalil Al-Absi
55'
⚽Saïd Benrahmaassist: Georgios Masouras
🔁Aboubacar·Diakiteout: Waleed Al-Shanqiti
70'
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Dweheout: Mohammed Al Hamdani
71'
Sofiane Bendebka
75'
Abdurahman Al-Dakheel
79'
84'
🔁Georgios Masourasout: Abbas Al Hassan
🔁Amir Saâyoudout: Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida
90+1'
🔁Abdurahman Al-Dakheelout: Mory Konate
90+1'
90+3'
🔁Valentín Vadaout: Mohammed Al-Burayk

Match stats — Al-Hazm vs NEOM

38%Possession62%
7Shots9
3On target3
2Corners5
0.75xG1.64

Goals against chances

Al-Hazm1 from 0.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
NEOM1 from 1.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Hazm 3-4-3
  • 36J. StaněkG
  • 4Sultan TankerD
  • 17Bonheur MugishaD
  • 34Abdulrahman Al-DakheelD
  • 2Saud Al RashedM
  • 28S. BendebkaM
  • 24A. BahM
  • 27Ahmed Al NakhliM
  • 22Abdul Aziz Sulaiman Al DhuwayhiF
  • 10A. SayoudF
  • 29Aboubacar DiakiteF
Substitutes
  • 88K. AbduljawadF
  • 77M. Al HamdaniF
  • 13Abdullah Al ShanqitiD
  • 5Mohammed IssaD
  • 95Jaser AteeqD
  • 3A. Ben HmidaD
  • 8M. KonatéM
  • 23Ibrahim ZaidG
  • 11Waleed Al ShanqitiF
Coach: J. Kadri
NEOM 4-4-2
  • 1M. BułkaG
  • 15Abdulmalik Al OyayariD
  • 5M. SarrD
  • 44N. ZézéD
  • 27Islam HawsawiD
  • 77Muhannad Al SaadM
  • 23V. VadaM
  • 72A. KonéM
  • 7G. MasourasM
  • 91A. LacazetteF
  • 70Haroune CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 33Abdulrahman DagririG
  • 4Khalifah Al DawsariD
  • 14Khalil Al AbsiF
  • 2Mohammed Al BuraykD
  • 55Muhammad Al DosariD
  • 8Faisal Al GhamdiM
  • 6A. Al HassanM
  • 75Khalid Al RammahD
  • 10S. BenrahmaF
Coach: C. Galtier

Form going into Al-Hazm vs NEOM

Al-Hazm

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Al-Ahli Jeddah11 September 2026
  • W1-0Al Taawon8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Al-Faisaly FC5 September 2026
  • D1-1Al Shabab30 August 2026

NEOM

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2Al-Fateh13 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
  • W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Hazm failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Hazm scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Al-Hazm had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Al-Hazm122461420-610
5NEOM127141810+822

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Hazm vs NEOM

  • 28 April 2026NEOM 1–1 Al-HazmPro League
  • 4 January 2026Al-Hazm 1–2 NEOMPro League
  • 23 September 2025Al-Hazm 2–1 NEOMKing's Cup
  • 24 February 2025Al-Hazm 0–2 NEOMDivision 1
  • 5 October 2024NEOM 2–0 Al-HazmDivision 1

Leading scorers: Al-Hazm and NEOM

Al-Hazm

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

NEOM

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lacazette72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Hazm and NEOM drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for NEOM at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Aboubacar·Diakite 41' for Al-Hazm, Saïd Benrahma 55' for NEOM. On expected goals it finished 0.75–1.64.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Hazm a 12.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.7% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.1%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

For NEOM the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 17.0% going in: 20.1% after a win, 14.9% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.9%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Hazm v NEOM has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is NEOM's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Al-Hazm win28%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. NEOM win45%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.