10 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Sumqayıt vs Qabala Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium, Sumqayit
Referee: K. Rahimov
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Sumqayıt 4-1 Qabala.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Sumqayıt, 27% draw, 25% Qabala — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sumqayıt at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sumqayıt99%Draw1%Qabala0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Bangre
6'
⚽E. Suliman
9'
Renan Santana
13'
🔁Jeamout: R. Ahmadzada
22'
25'
⚽S. Shahniyarov
28'
I. Akinade
⚽R. Vasquez
29'
46'
🔁F. Iskandarovout: E. Cekici
C. Badolo
62'
Lucas Black
63'
66'
🔁K. Rossiout: Raphael Utzig
⚽Lucas Black
68'
🔁R. Vasquezout: N. Ahmadzada
78'
🔁Lucas Blackout: R. Kehat
78'
78'
🔁N. Monzangoout: Edson Eduardo
78'
🔁M. Ubochiomaout: Bruno Silva
83'
S. Shahniyarov
86'
🔁K. Mabeaout: N. Rashidov
🔁Renan Santanaout: A. Suleymali
90'
🔁M. Bangreout: N. Orucov
90'

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sumqayıt102441314-110
10Qabala11227618-128

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sumqayıt vs Qabala

  • 19 April 2026Sumqayıt 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 20 February 2026Sumqayıt 0–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 7 November 2025Qabala 0–2 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
  • 25 May 2024Sumqayıt 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 23 January 2024Qabala 0–1 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
  • 29 October 2023Sumqayıt 0–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Sumqayıt beat Qabala 4–1. The model had made a win for Sumqayıt its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Bangre 6' for Sumqayıt, E. Suliman 9' for Sumqayıt, S. Shahniyarov 25' for Qabala, R. Vasquez 29' for Sumqayıt, Lucas Black 68' for Sumqayıt.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sumqayıt a 29.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.7% after a win, 31.7% after a draw, 37.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.7%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

For Qabala the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 58.4% going in: 50.0% after a win, 56.2% after a draw, 62.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.9%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sumqayıt v Qabala has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Sumqayıt's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Sumqayıt win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Qabala win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.