Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 Al-Ittihad.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Al-Faisaly FC, 30% draw, 34% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Faisaly FC at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. PachecoG
- 2Y. BarnawiD
- 4A. SeckD
- 5Andrei GirottoD
- 50M. Al ShanqitiD
- 6E. Al MuwalladM
- 13C. BassogogM
- 8FlavioM
- 77A. Al ShereafM
- 20J. SeoaneM
- 19A. MendyF
- 26M. Al HasawiG
- 70M. JahfaliD
- 87A. SubaytM
- 3K. Al HarbiD
- 82H. Al ZarieD
- 88S. HaddadD
- 95A. FallatahM
- 24A. Al BishiM
- 10T. BongondaF
- 1P. RajkovicG
- 13M. Al ShanqitiD
- 2D. PereiraD
- 15H. KadeshD
- 25F. AbdiD
- 27A. Al GhamdiM
- 30D. LopyM
- 5R. RiosM
- 34S. BergwijnM
- 9G. IlenikhenaF
- 21Y. En NesyriF
- 50M. Al AbsiG
- 42M. FagihyD
- 66M. BarnawiD
- 23G. WijnaldumM
- 8M. AliM
- 60R. KaabiM
- 41M. FallatahM
- 11S. Al ShehriF
- 22M. Al SahafiF
Form going into Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad
Al-Faisaly FC
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC30 August 2026
Al-Ittihad
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Al-Fayha8 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Nassr5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Fateh29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad
Al-Faisaly FC
GoalsAssists
- Alexandre Mendy51
Al-Ittihad
GoalsAssists
- Y. En-Nesyri70
- G. Ilenikhena63
- S. Bergwijn51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Ittihad won 3–1 at Al-Faisaly FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Faisaly FC at 36% and given a win for Al-Ittihad 34%. The goals: S. Bergwijn 28' for Al-Ittihad, Y. En Nesyri 43' for Al-Ittihad, Y. En Nesyri 59' for Al-Ittihad, T. Bongonda 87' for Al-Faisaly FC. On expected goals it finished 1.11–1.29.
How the call on Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Ittihad has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is the draw, up 3 points.
- Al-Faisaly FC win36%▼ −1
- Draw30%▲ +3
- Al-Ittihad win34%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.