Al Ittihad Alexandria vs Asyut Petrol Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Al Ittihad Alexandria 1-0 Asyut Petrol.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Al Ittihad Alexandria, 28% draw, 31% Asyut Petrol — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Ittihad Alexandria at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Ittihad Alexandria vs Asyut Petrol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. Soliman
- 24M. AwadD
- 7M. Mostafa
- 5M. IbrahimD
- 30K. MosaadD
- 23S. IsaacM
- 25M. EmadM
- 35P. PhiriM
- 8M. TonyM
- 80J. ArumalaM
- 10H. HassanF
- 16A. El ArabiG
- 4I. AbdellahD
- 12M. SherifD
- 14M. FakhriM
- 44K. SemakulaD
- 37A. AtefM
- 11Y. WahidF
- 18J. EbukaF
- 22N. AlaaM
- 1A. YoussefG
- 30A. MedhatD
- 20A. Shokry
- 24M. Abdel AleimD
- 7A. YounesM
- 19I. AbbasM
- 26A. El KhamisiM
- 13I. AshrafM
- 12Z. Tarek
- 35C. C. BodneF
- 22M. TayebF
- 25A. Ahmed
- 5M. AlaaD
- 34K. AbdelaalD
- 29A. MorganD
- 17A. HamzaM
- 31A. SalamM
- 15A. Khaled
- 9M. EidF
- 11M. Abdel HamidF
Form going into Al Ittihad Alexandria vs Asyut Petrol
Al Ittihad Alexandria
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Abu Qair Semad2 September 2026
Asyut Petrol
All competitions we cover
- L0-1National Bank of Egypt31 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 14 |
| 18 | Asyut Petrol | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Ittihad Alexandria and Asyut Petrol
Al Ittihad Alexandria
GoalsAssists
- Hossam Hassan40
Asyut Petrol
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Ittihad Alexandria beat Asyut Petrol 1–0. The model had made a win for Al Ittihad Alexandria its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: N. Alaa 74' for Al Ittihad Alexandria. On expected goals it finished 0.48–0.67.
How the call on Al Ittihad Alexandria v Asyut Petrol has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Al Ittihad Alexandria's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria win41%▲ +4
- Draw28%=
- Asyut Petrol win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.