7 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

Rubin vs Akhmat Premier League prediction & result

Ak Bars Arena, Kazan
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Rubin 1-1 Akhmat.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Rubin, 29% draw, 30% Akhmat — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rubin at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rubin5%Draw92%Akhmat3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Nikita Lobov
25'
⚽J. Siwe (pen)
26'
46'
🔁S. Pryakhinout: K. Shchetinin
56'
⚽E. Cacinturaassist: M. Konate
🔁R. Bezrukovout: B. Jocic
57'
🔁I. Samoshnikovout: U. Iwu
57'
🔁I. Rozhkovout: M. Ignatiev
70'
81'
🔁L. Sadulaevout: M. Samorodov
81'
🔁M. Konateout: E. Maksuti
86'
🔁I. Silvaout: M. Keliano
🔁J. Siweout: D. N. Motorin
88'

Match stats — Rubin vs Akhmat

51%Possession49%
14Shots23
3On target7
2Corners8

Line-ups

Rubin 3-4-3
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 12A. ArroyoM
  • 22V. HodzaM
  • 77A. JukicM
  • 51I. RozhkovM
  • 71I. SamoshnikovF
  • 43J. SiweF
  • 23R. BezrukovF
Substitutes
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 5I. VujacicD
  • 70D. KabutovD
  • 27A. GritsaenkoD
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 18M. IgnatievD
  • 4K. NizhegorodovD
  • 8B. JocicM
Coach: Franc Artiga
Akhmat 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. UlyanovG
  • 95A. AdamovD
  • 6K. SidibeD
  • 5K. CakeD
  • 8M. BogosavacD
  • 11I. SilvaM
  • 18J. RomaoM
  • 19S. PryakhinM
  • 17E. CacinturaM
  • 7L. SadulaevM
  • 13M. KonateF
Substitutes
  • 88G. SheliaG
  • 71R. MitsaevG
  • 81M. SidorovD
  • 10K. ShchetininM
  • 42M. KelianoM
  • 54K. Kistenev
  • 70A. GadzhievM
  • 23G. KenzhebekM
  • 20M. SamorodovF
Coach: Stanislav Cherchesov

Form going into Rubin vs Akhmat

Rubin

  • W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026

Akhmat

  • D3-3Krylia Sovetov29 August 2026
  • W4-1FC Rostov22 August 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Krasnodar15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Rubin92611211+112
10Akhmat82421311+210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rubin vs Akhmat

  • 7 September 2026Rubin 1–1 AkhmatPremier League
  • 22 November 2025Rubin 1–0 AkhmatPremier League
  • 22 October 2025Rubin 3–3 AkhmatCup
  • 26 August 2025Akhmat 2–0 RubinCup
  • 20 July 2025Akhmat 0–2 RubinPremier League
  • 1 March 2025Akhmat 2–1 RubinPremier League

Leading scorers: Rubin and Akhmat

Rubin

  • J. Siwe3 goals

Akhmat

  • Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assists
  • G. Melkadze3 goals
  • L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.