Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908 Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Iraklis 1908.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Asteras Tripolis, 29% draw, 25% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Asteras Tripolis at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908
Line-ups
- 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
- 27G. KotsirasD
- 16F. BrorssonD
- 32J. SilvaD
- 28Alex MéndezD
- 21D. KourbelisM
- 19F. OrozcoM
- 8I. BouzoukisM
- 10Eder GonzálezM
- 11K. KetuM
- 39RicardinhoF
- 6K. ChrisopoulosD
- 14J. ChiccoM
- 91T. KakadiarisG
- 20N. KaltsasF
- 51Giannis KriarasG
- 74D. LaskarisD
- 9F. MachedaF
- 75B. Mbunga KimpiokaF
- 44A. PapakanellosM
- 33G. AthanasiadisG
- 30Carles SoriaD
- 2P. VourosD
- 21PiñaD
- 69Y. RocheD
- 31NanuD
- 18R. NizetM
- 90V. SourlisM
- 22K. KaïbouéM
- 10Y. BárcenasM
- 7E. KoljićF
- 44R. LauritsenD
- 43Pedro MarquesF
- 6CarlisM
- 8N. RadojaM
- 23Daniel Muñoz NavasD
- 11Ivi LópezM
- 9K. KushtaF
- 27M. KrainzM
- 1G. KarakasidisG
Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908
Asteras Tripolis
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Panetolikos23 August 2026
Iraklis 1908
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Volos NFC29 August 2026
- L0-4away to AEK Athens FC22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and Iraklis 1908
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda31
Iraklis 1908
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Marques31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Iraklis 1908 won 2–0 at Asteras Tripolis. The model had leaned towards a win for Asteras Tripolis at 46% and given a win for Iraklis 1908 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Edgar Yoel Bárcenas 8' for Iraklis 1908, Ivi López (penalty) 73' for Iraklis 1908.
How the call on Asteras Tripolis v Iraklis 1908 has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Asteras Tripolis's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Asteras Tripolis win46%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Iraklis 1908 win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.