Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Nassr 5-3 Al Kholood.
Before kick-off the model made it 75% Al-Nassr, 15% draw, 10% Al Kholood — fair odds of 1.33, 6.67 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al-Nassr at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24BentoG
- 12Nawaf BoushalD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 26Íñigo MartínezD
- 23Ayman YahyaD
- 9Abdullah Al HamdanM
- 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
- 20ÂngeloM
- 10S. ManéM
- 79João FélixF
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF
- 56R. Al GhamdiF
- 5Abdulelah Al AmriD
- 22Abdulhadi Al AlwanG
- 83Salem Al NajdiD
- 14Sami Al NajiM
- 6Saad Al NasserD
- 70Awad AmanD
- 29Abdulrahman GhareebF
- 8Hayder AbdulkareemM
- 1Hamed Abdullah YousefG
- 15Ramzi SolanD
- 38S. PinasD
- 25Mansour CamaraD
- 7Sultan Al ShehriD
- 39Abdulrahman Al DosariM
- 6J. BuckleyM
- 77A. EssombaM
- 10Iker KortajarenaM
- 11CobaM
- 22J. DominguesF
- 48Muhannad Al YahyaG
- 30Mohammed Mazyad AlshammariG
- 67Mohammed Al RashidiM
- 47Abdulrahman Al ObaidD
- 24O. AbdulghaniD
- 26Yaseen Al ZubaidiF
- 99GugaF
- 70Muhammad SawanM
- 23Yazan MadaniD
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
Al-Nassr
Pro League
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC23 October 2026
- W1-0NEOM20 October 2026
- W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
Al Kholood
Pro League
- L0-3Al-Ettifaq24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Faisaly FC15 October 2026
- L0-5Al-Qadisiyah FC9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Nassr went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Nassr won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Kholood did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al Kholood conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Kholood failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
- 30 January 2026Al Kholood 0–3 Al-NassrPro League
- 14 September 2025Al-Nassr 2–0 Al KholoodPro League
- 14 March 2025Al-Nassr 3–1 Al KholoodPro League
- 25 October 2024Al Kholood 3–3 Al-NassrPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al Kholood
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Al Kholood
GoalsAssists
- J. Domingues63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Nassr beat Al Kholood 5–3. The model had made a win for Al-Nassr its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Julien Domingues 16' for Al Kholood, Angelo Borges 24' for Al-Nassr, Sadio Mané 38' for Al-Nassr, Antoine Loic Essomba Bikoula 45+2' for Al Kholood, Cristiano Ronaldo 66' for Al-Nassr, Cristiano Ronaldo 72' for Al-Nassr, Cristiano Ronaldo 81' for Al-Nassr, Julien Domingues (penalty) 90+4' for Al Kholood. On expected goals it finished 3.70–2.07.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Nassr a 89.4% chance to finish in the top four: 90.8% after a win, 85.7% after a draw, 80.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 90.8%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.
For Al Kholood the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.9% going in: 10.8% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 19.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.6%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al-Nassr v Al Kholood has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 72% / 17% / 11% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 75% / 15% / 10%: the biggest move is Al-Nassr's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Al-Nassr win75%▲ +3
- Draw15%▼ −2
- Al Kholood win10%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.